Brazil's drought will last until 2025! The coffee industry was severely damaged

According to Brazilian media reports, recently, due to Brazil experienced a severe drought, resulting in frequent forest fires in Brazil, the impact is serious. In recent days, however, the dry and hot weather in southern Brazil has been temporarily relieved by a cold peak in the south. However, at present, the cold peak has weakened and the temperature has risen again.

At present, parts of central Brazil remain high, with the highest temperature reaching around 40 °C. Moreover, according to the Brazilian National Meteorological Institute (Inmet), air humidity is low in most parts of the country, especially in the north of Sao Paulo, western Minas and parts of the northeast, and air quality in the southeast of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro may deteriorate again with the return of dry and hot weather.

According to Brazilian media data, the fire situation in several Brazilian states has been alleviated, and the hardest-hit states of Mato Grosso, Brasilia and Sao Paulo have also reported that most of the fires have been brought under control. only a few areas still have fires.

Although the fire situation has not been brought under control, extreme weather such as drought and fires have had a severe impact on Brazil's coffee industry, and it is reported that about 600 hectares of land has been destroyed by wildfires in Sao Paulo State, the main coffee producing area in Brazil, including large coffee plantations.

According to local growers in Brazil, the estate lost about 8000 to 10000 coffee trees and was expected to harvest 500 to 600 bags of coffee beans, but only half of it was harvested and the other half was burned. The director of the Sao Paulo State Department of Agriculture said that as the fire was mainly concentrated in sugar cane plantations, coffee plantations and farms, and secondary hazards such as smoke from the fire affected subsequent agricultural production, losses are currently estimated to exceed 2 billion reais.

In addition, the drought continues to have an impact on the country's coffee industry, with no rain in several areas of Minas Gerais, Brazil's main coffee-producing region, in the past 167 days and a drying up of famous waterfalls nearby. The neighboring capital Brasilia has also been affected. It is reported that fires in the early state of Sao Paulo spread to the capital Brasilia and Mato Grosso, destroying large amounts of farmland and woodland. A fire broke out in 20% of Brasilia National Park covering an area of about 7700 hectares. in addition, the fire once spread near the Santamaria Reservoir in the Federation, threatening water supply in Brasilia and nearby areas.

At present, the severe drought in Brazil has led to a drop in the water level of many major rivers, frequent wildfires, serious environmental pollution and reduced crop production. According to Brazil's National Natural disaster Monitoring and early warning Centre, the current drought is the worst in 70 years. This year, the drought in Brazil has affected about 5 million square kilometers, affecting about 59 per cent of the country's land area.

According to the analysis of the researchers, the severe drought in Brazil is related to climate warming and El Ni ñ o. The El Ni ñ o imagination that began in July last year, coupled with the warming of tropical seas in the North Atlantic, continued to affect the climate of Brazil in the first half of this year, which changed the path of atmospheric circulation and hindered the formation of rain clumps. Rainfall is gradually declining, and the future situation is not optimistic. It is believed that the drought in Brazil may not show signs of abating before 2025, so agriculture is still not optimistic in the future.

According to a report by the Brazilian Association of Coffee exporters (Cecafe), in August, Brazil exported 3.733 million bags (60 kg / bag) of coffee, with export earnings of US $955.6 million, the best in August, with a 0.7 per cent increase in trading volume and a 31 per cent increase in foreign exchange earnings. From January to August 2024, Brazil has exported a total of 31.892 million bags of coffee, an increase of 39.2% compared with 22.915 million bags in the same period last year, and achieved while the port maintained a high delay rate.

Such a high export volume is due to the imminent implementation of the European Union's deforestation EUDR, which has led EU traders to join the import volume to ensure sufficient inventory after the implementation of EUDR on December 31st. Early in the morning, the Brazilian government has applied to the European Union to postpone the implementation of EUDR for more or less coffee trade, but so far the European Union has not responded. Therefore, the Dutch Bank of Cooperation (Rabobank) believes that due to various influences, coffee prices will remain high by the end of 2024, and Brazil will experience a drought, and it will be difficult to estimate the output in the next season, which will continue to affect coffee prices.

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