Brazilian Coffee production decreases & Central American Coffee lost harvest Arabica Coffee beans or further shortage

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Originally, due to the drought in Brazil last year and the impact of this year's small coffee production cycle, the reduction in Arabica coffee beans in Brazil's 2021 summer 22 production season has destabilized the entire Arabica coffee industry. Then torrential rains in Colombia also threatened the production of Arabica coffee beans in Colombia. One wave after another, the blockage of the Suez Canal on March 23rd once again brought a rise in costs to the coffee industry.

With the promotion of COVID-19 vaccination, people are slowly resuming consumption, but at this point in time, there is a problem with all coffee supplies. Tensions in the Arabica coffee market, in particular, will further exacerbate already rising food inflation.

The New York futures market has risen 22% since the end of October, according to Bloomberg. Marex Spectron recently raised its forecast for the global coffee shortage from 8 million bags to 10.7 million bags. This is largely due to the impact of last year's drought in Brazil and the possible frost in Brazil during the July-August harvest season in 2021, which may lead to further loss of coffee harvest. it is also partly due to crop losses caused by hurricanes in other small coffee-growing countries in Central America last year, and the current torrential rains in Colombia have the opportunity to increase the shortage of Arabica coffee beans.

According to Maxar Technologies Inc. The La Nina weather has brought three times the average rainfall to Colombia's growing areas in the past two months and will continue in the next two weeks, a senior meteorologist said on March 29. Colombia's National Federation of Coffee growers also says La Nina is very harmful because Rain Water has accelerated the spread of leaf rust fungi, and 15 per cent of coffee varieties in Colombia are low-resistant coffee varieties. Leaf rust has been costing Colombian coffee growers billions of dollars.

According to the Colombian National Federation of Coffee growers, the production of Arabica coffee beans in Colombia will drop by about 500000 bags (60 kg / bag) to 6 million bags in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year. The yield in the second half of the year will depend on whether the weather improves when the main crops are harvested. The current price of washed coffee beans in Arabica, Colombia, is $216 / bag (125 kg / bag), up $12.34 / bag from last week.

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