A number of countries have reported an increase in coffee production and a good performance in coffee exports

Recently, according to Nasdaq, coffee prices began to decline recently, Robusta coffee prices began to fall, and Arabica prices were relatively stable.

Robusta coffee prices began to fall mainly in Vietnam and Brazil, although Vietnam has been affected by drought, and Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture predicts that Vietnam's coffee production will fall by 10% to 1.656 million tons in 2023. But according to the Vietnamese Presidential Bureau of Accounting, Vietnam exported 238266 metric tons of coffee in January, up 14.8 per cent from December and 6 per cent from January last year. This export volume is not only higher than the previous market forecast of 3.25 million bags, but also a record monthly export volume.

In addition, Vietnam, like China, celebrates the Lunar New year. Earlier, Vietnamese farmers were reluctant to sell their coffee beans. They were watching, hoping to wait until prices were higher before selling coffee beans, so that they could have enough money for the Spring Festival. In addition, many traders find it difficult to get enough goods to fulfill the previously signed pre-sale contracts, so they can only renegotiate with farmers to buy coffee beans at the right price. Moreover, due to the increase in coffee exports in January, the market predicts that Vietnam's coffee production will increase by 28 million bags in 2023, although it is lower than the average output, but the export volume will further increase to 25.5 million bags.

In addition, in Brazil, according to data from Brazil's local meteorological department, continuous rainfall in the main coffee producing areas of Brazil in February is conducive to the growth of coffee crops. And researcher StoneX earlier predicted that coffee production in Brazil would rise 4.2% year-on-year to 67 million bags. In addition, due to the ongoing Red Sea crisis, traders reduced their purchases of coffee beans in Vietnam, as routes had to be diverted to the Cape of good Hope, shipping costs and shipping time increased, traders turned to Brazil to buy Robusta coffee beans.

In addition, Arabica prices are stable because coffee exports in the Americas, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El Salvador remain stable, and the volume of coffee exports is basically the same as in the same period last year. But in Honduras, coffee production is expected to be 5.35 million bags and 60 kg in 2023 and 24, a decrease of about 6 per cent compared with the previous year. However, due to the stability of logistics, the export volume can reach 4.95 million bags, the same as last year.

There has been a big increase in coffee production in Colombia in the Americas. Colombian coffee production in 2023x24 is expected to reach 12.6 million bags, an increase of 15.5% over the previous year, and coffee exports are expected to increase by about 10.8 million bags, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year.