The highest in 26 years! Brazil's domestic coffee spot price hits new high

According to Brazilian media reports, drought and high temperatures in Brazil led to a sharp decline in coffee production in the first half of this year, which also affected the price of coffee products in Brazil. According to the recently released Brazilian National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the price of coffee products in Brazil rose by nearly 33% between December and November last year.

The spot price of coffee also rose, reaching a 26-year high, with the average price reaching 2100 reais to 2200 reais per bag (60 kg per bag). On December 10, the futures price on the New York Stock Exchange reached $426 per bag. in addition, the price of American C coffee futures, the industry benchmark, also hit a high of 348.3 cents.

Some people in the Brazilian coffee industry said that as the recovery of the yield of this crop may take a long time, the average price of coffee in Brazil will remain high until at least 2026, but it also depends on the climatic conditions in 2025.

Brazil is not only the world's largest coffee producer, but also the second largest coffee consumer in the world, second only to the United States. Although the current price of coffee is high, the demand for coffee products continues to rise. At present, Brazil has opened up new international markets, importing coffee beans from abroad to meet the domestic market, but it may have a certain impact on Brazil's exportable coffee supply in the future.

In addition, the current domestic coffee production in Brazil is not optimistic. It is reported that due to long-term high temperature and drought weather in important coffee producing areas in Brazil, such as Minas and Sao Paulo states, coffee trees will drop a large number of leaves under the influence of this weather environment, but affect coffee production at the same time.

In addition, the coffee harvest in Brazil can be divided into big year and small year, that is, the harvest is more in one year and less in the second year. This year is supposed to be a big year, and there should be more harvests, so many institutions initially predicted an increase in Brazilian production this year. However, due to the serious problem of global climate change, the law of this year may be broken, causing the harvest to continue to decline.

As a result, the price of coffee beans in Brazil has risen so much that, according to data, the average price of a 60-kilogram bag of coffee beans in January was between 700 and 750 reais. By November, the average price of a 60-kilogram bag of coffee beans had risen to around 1805 reais, breaking the record since February 1998.

But in December, prices were still unstable, and the average price of a 60-kilogram bag of coffee beans is now between 2100 and 2200 reais. And on December 11th, a 60-kilogram bag of coffee beans closed at 2561.78 reais on the New York Stock Exchange.

However, recently, Neumann Kaffee Gruppe (NKG), a national coffee trader, released the latest Brazilian coffee industry report, which believes that the final production of Brazilian Arabica coffee in 2025x26 is expected to reach 40 million bags (60 kg / bag), far higher than the 34.4 million bags predicted by Volcafe, another international trader, and said that it is "too early" to accurately evaluate the Brazilian coffee crop in 2025 / 26. So this is still full of uncertainty for the market.

In addition, the Brazilian central bank recently raised interest rates and raised the benchmark interest rate to 12.25%, which caused the Brazilian currency real to rise slightly, but the dollar remained strong and continued to rise, still exceeding 6 reais. It is reported that recently, US President-elect Trump has issued a series of tariff policies, which have increased the instability of the foreign trade industry.

And the United States has also received the threat of a port strike, so recently, domestic and foreign traders in the United States are speeding up their trade business to avoid the impact of strikes and tariffs. It is reported that container handling at US ports will increase by 14.3 per cent in December from a year earlier, which has also accelerated US purchases of Brazilian coffee, thus pushing up the price of Brazilian coffee recently. Due to the uncertain future, the price of coffee has no downward trend in the short term.

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