There is a shortage of Arabica coffee beans in the world, and the spot price of Colombian coffee beans is the highest in a decade.

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The Colombian Coffee Growers Union (FNC) recently said that the social segregation policy introduced by the government led to a shortage of coffee picking workers in coffee farms / coffee plantations, coupled with two months of heavy rainfall, which would lead to a reduction in Colombian coffee bean production in the first half of 2021.

From March 1 to March 31, coffee-growing areas in central and southern Colombia suffered heavy rainfall, with a cumulative rainfall of 300 millimeters, nearly 100 millimeters more than in the same period in history, according to the local meteorological department. The cultivation of boutique coffee beans in Colombia is mainly concentrated in southern Colombia, in which the familiar Cymbidium, Cauca, Nalinglong and Tomali producing areas are all concentrated in southern Colombia above 1500m above sea level.

(left: Colombia March 2021 rainfall, right: Colombia March 2020 rainfall)

In mid-February, the Colombian Coffee growers Union (FNC) forecast coffee production in Colombia for the first half of 2021 at between 5.5 million and 6.5 million bags (60 kg / bag), a decrease of 6.9 per cent compared with the same period in 2020. But it also said that the COVID-19 quarantine policy and heavy rainfall would improve in the second half of 2021, and they predicted that Colombian coffee production and total production would gradually return to normal in the second half of the year. Colombia produced 1390 bags of coffee beans in 2020, 6 per cent less than in the same period, while Colombia strives to maintain total coffee bean production in 2021 at the same level as last year.

The spot price of coffee in Colombia has been good since last year, due to the depreciation of Colombia's national currency, the peso, and the rise in water from 20 cents per pound to 45-50 cents per pound. In addition, due to various factors, the projected output of Arabica coffee in Brazil continues to decline, coffee futures have risen 22% since their low in October last year, and spot prices of washed coffee beans in Latin America have continued to rise. The spot price of Colombian coffee has reached the highest level in nearly a decade.

(top: Colombian coffee spot price trend, bottom: international coffee futures price trend)

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