Global coffee production up, Arabica prices down slightly, Robusta stays high

Recently, according to Reuters, Vietnam is suffering from drought, coffee production will be reduced. Brazil forecasts rain next week, and the forecast is positive. Arabica coffee production is on an upward trend and prices will fall. And Colombian production rebounded in 2023, ending three consecutive years of decline due to weaker rainfall.

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports rose 4.1 per cent in November from a year earlier to 10.61 million bags, while coffee exports rose 3.1 per cent to 20.25 million bags from October to November. After that, the increase in the global supply of Arabica coffee will bring down the price. But the supply of Robusta coffee is still tight, and the price of coffee remains high.

At present, due to the tight supply of Robusta in Vietnam, prices will remain high and have the opportunity to continue to rise. And caused the price of robusta coffee to hit an all-time high recently. According to Vietnam's General Administration of Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports for the whole of 2023 fell 9.6% from a year earlier. In addition, Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture predicts that coffee production could fall by 10% in the 2023 crop year due to drought in Vietnam, the lowest in nearly four years.

The Colombian National Coffee Federation said coffee production in 2023 increased by 2 per cent from 11.08 million bags in 2022 to 1130 bags, still slightly lower than the federation's earlier forecast of 11.6 million to 12 million bags of coffee. But exports fell 7 per cent to 10.5 million bags, down from 11.4 million bags in 2022. Colombia, the world's largest producer of washed Arabica, was earlier affected by La Nina, which aggravated the rainy season rainfall and affected flowering time and yield. The subsequent weather impact weakened, with coffee production in Colombia rebounding to 1.22 million bags in December, up 24% from 981000 bags in December 2022. Exports rose 3% in December to 1.06 million bags, up from 1.03 million in December 2022.

Brazil, according to the Somar Meteorologia report, the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais has received 35.1mm of rainfall in the past week, accounting for 65 per cent of the historical average, but there has been a slight increase in coffee production. And the production of Arabica in Brazil has increased and the planting area has been increased, so it is predicted that the production of Arabica in 2023 in 24 will increase by 12.8% compared with the same period last year to 44.9 million bags. The current weather forecast shows that the temperature in Brazil's Robusta production area is 9 ℃ higher than the average and the rainfall is 75 mm less than the average. If Robusta production is to pick up, we need to continue to observe the follow-up climate change.

Note: 60kg per bag