Brazil's coffee bean production is unstable, and ship delays in Santos port slow coffee exports

Recently, the Brazilian exporters Committee Cecafe recently released a statistical report. In January 2024, Brazil exported 3.961 million bags of 60kg coffee, a record number for the first month of the year and an increase of 39 per cent compared with the same period last year, the report said. Foreign exchange earnings have increased by 30.4%, jumping from $615.5 million to the current $802.5 million.

In January this year, the largest export was Arabica coffee beans, with 3.208 million bags, accounting for 80.98%. Shipments of Robusta coffee beans, the second largest, increased by 50.35 per cent to 457000 bags, accounting for 11.56 per cent of the total. Brazil's coffee exports performed well in January, so the president of Cecafe said it was good news in the near term to do well in the face of global geopolitical conflicts and affected by the Red Sea crisis and the drought on the Panama Canal.

Moreover, the President also analyzed that the situation in Brazil could be further complicated by the continuing war between North Africa and the Middle East, as well as the lack of rainfall in Central America, and the increase in freight rates or the shortage of ships. Exporters already face high costs due to continued delays and changes in the size of ships and short opening hours.

At the same time, it was also reported that there were changes in the spot market price of coffee in Brazil. The spot price of Arabica coffee rose slightly by 0.86% throughout the month, but the spot price of Robusta coffee rose sharply by 12.6%. The main reason is that the weather changes frequently and the yield in the new season is uncertain. Robusta coffee production is clearly lower than expected, so Brazil's domestic spot prices have risen sharply along with international prices, although prices are high, but producers are also reluctant to sell coffee beans.

In addition, the problem of ship delays in the port of Santos, Brazil's largest port, is becoming more and more serious. It is reported that the rate of change in stopovers and delays at Santos port stores reached 85% in January 2024, the highest percentage recorded so far, more than 81% in November last year. It has been revealed that due to the physical space limitations of the terminal space, it is difficult for the terminal to receive goods, and these problems have led to regular delays in port cargo and shipyards full of containers. Of these, 13 per cent were delayed for more than 4 days, 54 per cent for 3-4 days and only 19 per cent for 2 days, greatly slowing down the export of coffee.