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The decline in production in Robusta coffee producing areas led to a surge in Robusta prices, and the export growth of Arabica coffee beans was stable.

Published: 2026-02-25 Author:

Last Updated: 2026/02/25, Indonesia has been affected by bad weather, resulting in a sharp drop in production, Reuters reported. Moreover, the El Ni ñ o phenomenon continues and causes high fever in low-lying coffee producing areas, so this year Indonesia's total output will plummet to less than 10 million bags of 60 kilograms, and this year's coffee harvest will be more than a dozen.

Indonesia has been affected by bad weather, resulting in a sharp drop in production, Reuters reported. Moreover, the El Ni ñ o phenomenon continues and causes high fever in low-lying coffee producing areas, so Indonesia's total production will plummet to less than 10 million bags of 60 kilograms this year, and this year's coffee harvest will be the lowest in more than a decade.

And experts at the Indonesian Coffee and Cocoa Research Center say El Ni ñ o can have devastating consequences for low-altitude growing areas and forests, where high temperatures and drought can be devastating, while Robusta mostly grows at low elevations. Indonesia's exports of Sumatra Robusta coffee beans reached 3192.28 metric tons in January, down 79 percent from 15006.2 metric tons in the same period last year, according to the Indonesian Trade Office.

The decline in exports has also led to a surge in export prices, with Indonesian Sumatra Robusta coffee delivered in April now trading at more than $800 a tonne, up from $720 a tonne earlier, according to one trader. In addition, the quotation for the pre-sale contract in May increased to US $700 per tonne, up from US $640 per tonne the previous week.

Vietnam has also been affected by drought, resulting in a 10% reduction in annual coffee production this year. This has also led to a rise in the price of robusta coffee beans in Vietnam, which are expected to cost between 83 million and 85 million dong / ton in the central highlands. According to local experts, coffee prices have been soaring due to strong demand and falling supply, and many companies have stepped up purchases to increase inventories and further push up prices for export reserves.

Although Vietnam exported only 160000 tons of coffee in February 2024, down 20% from the same period in 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports increased by 67.50 in the first two months of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, with a turnover of US $1.25 billion.

Currently, Arabica countries report strong exports from Central America and Honduras, which sold 932678 bags in February 2024, an increase of 26 per cent over the same period in 2023. In Africa, the Kenyan government earlier invested 6 billion dollars to support coffee cultivation, and by 2023, the area of coffee has increased to 111709 hectares, an increase of 2.1 percent. The Kenyan Presidential Bureau of Accounting says Kenya exported 47861 tons at a price of $251.86 million during the 2022 Compact 23 production season.