Coffee prices fall! Brazil and Vietnam's output and exports remain strong

Some time ago, the price of coffee futures continued to rise, and the price of Robusta coffee futures even reached a record high of 4339 US dollars per ton. In addition, the knock-on effect also pushed up the price of Arabica futures.

All because Vietnam is in the dry season, excessive drought and depletion of underground water sources. Coffee production in Vietnam has been greatly reduced as a result of the withering and yellowing of the leaves of coffee plants in the flowering season.

Due to the decline in production, local farmers can hoard coffee beans, while traders to prevent default and heavy losses, regardless of the price of coffee beans, higher coffee prices.

However, prices have begun to fall in recent days, with London September Robusta futures currently trading at $3985 per ton, while New York September Arabica futures are trading at 216cents per pound.

The price drop was due to the release of coffee export reports from Brazil and Vietnam, the two largest countries, and the figures showed that the two countries' exports were strong.

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, in the first four months of 2024, Vietnamese coffee exports reached 75.6tons, with a turnover of US $2.57 billion, an increase of 5.4 per cent in production and 57.9 per cent in turnover compared with the same period in 2023. The average export price reached US $3402 per ton, also an increase of US $49.7 over the same period in 2023.

However, just looking at the April data, coffee exports were only 170000 tons, an increase of 3.9% over the same period last year, but down 10% from March. The turnover in April reached US $644 million. Due to the recent crazy rise in prices, the turnover in April increased by 61.5% compared with the same period last year, and the average export price in April was as high as US $3791 / ton.

However, according to the Brazilian Coffee Export Association (Cecafe), in April 2024, Brazil exported 4.6 million bags of coffee, of which 3.5 million were Arabica coffee, an increase of 27 percent over 2024.

In addition, on other exchanges, most tropical agricultural transactions fell, while cocoa traded at US $8000 per tonne, down nearly 14%. This has also led some investors or large investment companies to become cautious about investing in the entire soft commodities (cocoa, coffee and sugar), all in a wait-and-see state, leading to a fall in prices.

However, the global weather is still unstable, Vietnam is still dry, and Brazil is also experiencing drought, with no rain in the main producing areas in the past week. Usually, the cold air enters Brazil northward in the south, and it rains in case of a heat wave, but the excessive heat hinders the northward movement of the cold air, but torrential rains occur in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, but Rain Water cannot reach central Brazil. As a result, the market is still worried about future production and is currently in a wait-and-see state.