Yunnan Coffee production reduced by 40% Price encountered roller coaster

According to the Yunnan Coffee Industry Association, in late March, Yunnan coffee harvest is coming to an end. It is gratifying that coffee purchase prices have risen sharply, and sadly, Yunnan coffee production has been greatly reduced. In February, coffee prices rose the most in 20 years: from 114 cents per pound on January 28, 2014 to 180 cents per pound on February 28, 2014. However, coffee production in Yunnan has fallen from an estimated 100000 tons to perhaps less than 60, 000 tons.

The price of coffee roller coaster

Since 2012, the price of coffee in Yunnan has been affected by the decline of international coffee futures prices. in the past two years, Yunnan coffee has been hovering above and below the cost line of coffee production, the operation of coffee growers is poor, and it is difficult to protect the interests of farmers.

According to reports, at the end of January 2014, the price of Yunnan coffee rose rapidly with the recovery of international coffee futures prices, and the purchase price of Yunnan coffee also rose from about 13 yuan to about 25 yuan at present. In particular, in February 2014, coffee prices recorded the biggest monthly increase in international coffee in 20 years, but a week ago, the Brazilian weather forecast reported that there would be rain in Brazil. With the rainfall in Brazil, international coffee futures prices have dropped sharply, from 208 cents per pound last week to 171 cents per pound today, and the purchase price of Yunnan coffee has also dropped from 26 yuan per kilogram a week ago to 22 yuan per kilogram.

The relevant person in charge of the Yunnan Coffee Industry Association believes that there are probably three reasons for the rapid rise in coffee prices: first, the drought in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer since November 2013, is expected to affect coffee production; second, some coffee producing countries in Central and South America are affected by coffee rust, and coffee production is expected to decrease. Third, coffee futures have been in the doldrums for a long time, and coffee futures speculators intend to raise coffee prices and activate the coffee futures market. From the perspective of production and consumption, when coffee production is expected to decline, coffee supply may fall short of demand, and it is inevitable for coffee prices to rise.

As for whether the price of coffee will rise again, or will continue to fall, the relevant person in charge of the Yunnan Coffee Industry Association believes that excluding other factors that affect the price, only from the perspective of production and consumption, coffee prices are expected to hover around 200 cents from March to May, if after May, coffee from Brazil, Central and South America and other countries and regions will enter the harvest period. When coffee production is expected to increase, flat or decrease, coffee futures prices will have a new trend, the output is high, the price is likely to decline, the output is flat, the price tends to be stable, the output is low, and the price may rise in varying degrees.

Coffee production fell

Statistics show that in 2013, Yunnan produced more than 80,000 tons of coffee, but the price of coffee was relatively low, and farmers and enterprises had no harvest. In 2014, the planting area of coffee increased to more than 1.4 million mu, and the production area increased to more than 700,000 mu. According to the original estimate of Yunnan Coffee Industry Association, the coffee output in this season should be about 100000 tons. However, as of March 20, 2014, the coffee harvest in Yunnan is coming to an end, but the coffee output is still less than 60,000 tons. Take Baoshan Coffee as an example, the output of coffee in this harvest season is less than 50% of that of last year, only about 9000 tons. Pu'er coffee production has also fallen by at least 30% from last year. It is very difficult for the total output of Yunnan coffee to exceed 60,000 tons this harvest season, that is to say, Yunnan coffee production has been reduced by more than 40%.

Yang Zhiqi, executive vice president of Yunnan Coffee Industry Association and chairman of Lingfeng Coffee, analyzed that there are three reasons for the substantial decrease in Yunnan coffee production in this harvest season: first, the coffee was affected by drought in the early harvest season; second, in the early stage of coffee maturity, the coffee price fell below the production cost price, and some farmers gave up harvesting, resulting in coffee fruit necrosis on the trees. Third, the cold injury for more than a week from December 15 to 22 last year caused a large area of coffee disaster in Yunnan; in the face of the triple disaster, Yunnan coffee output dropped from an estimated 100000 tons to less than 60, 000 tons.