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With the global warming, the production of boutique coffee may be reduced.

Published: 2026-05-15 Author: World Gafei

Last Updated: 2026/05/15, Half of the arable land needed to produce coffee will disappear by 2050. This is the result of a new research model that assesses how climate change will change the conditions under which coffee beans grow, such as temperature and rainfall. The researchers first acquired Arabica Coffee (coffeaarabica) and Robusta Coffee (coffea), the two main coffee species currently used in the world.

Half of the arable land needed to produce coffee will disappear by 2050. This is the result of a new research model that assesses how climate change will change the conditions under which coffee beans grow, such as temperature and rainfall.

The researchers first acquired the areas currently used to grow the world's two main coffee species, Arabica Coffee (coffeaarabica, pictured) and Robusta Coffee (coffeacanephora). They then used climate models to predict the future climate of these areas in 2050 and how the climate would affect coffee growth. Scientists recently published online in the journal Climate change that human beings can only play a weak role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions in the future, and the global land suitable for coffee growth will be reduced by 50% as a whole.

Big coffee producers such as Brazil and Vietnam will become particularly vulnerable. Near the equator, robusta coffee will at least replace some Arabica coffee, which is vulnerable to high temperatures. Robusta coffee, on the other hand, has become more vulnerable to climate fluctuations and may suffer greater losses around the world. The researchers say that if the coffee market environment is good enough, some coffee production can be moved to high elevations or high latitudes. But as a result, other forests need to be cut down for arable land, and that is not good for climate change because trees absorb carbon dioxide from the air.

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