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Coffee volatility tops the world, and this week will usher in a critical period of rebound.

Published: 2026-05-16 Author: World Gafei

Last Updated: 2026/05/16, Last week, the trend of Shanghai 50ETF is still within the downward channel since the beginning of the year, although there are slight signs of improvement on Friday, it has not yet stood on the 20th line, which may become the key to the rebound today. But if Monday's opening falls below Friday's lowest price, there is a decline or a high probability of an event. Since the listing of 50ETF options, the implied volatility of the March option contract is basically lower than the historical volatility of the subject matter.

Last week, the trend of Shanghai 50ETF is still within the downward channel since the beginning of the year, although there are slight signs of improvement on Friday, it has not yet stood on the 20th line, which may become the key to the rebound today. But if Monday's opening falls below Friday's lowest price, there is a decline or a high probability of an event.

Since the listing of 50ETF options, the implied volatility of the option contract in March is basically lower than the historical volatility of the subject matter, and the investment methods of the options market participants are more rational. At the same time, the trading volume is increasing day by day, while the implied volatility gradually converges to the historical volatility, from which we can see that the market efficiency is higher, and the frequency of risk-free arbitrage is less and less. the reasonable and healthy development of the option market has created fertile ground for the exertion of the functions such as option hedging and pricing. From the perspective of foreign mature markets, it is often the normal market that the implied volatility is higher than the historical volatility, and the increase in the value of options may become an important signal of the maturity of the option market.

Haitong Futures Department believes that the March contract will expire on the 25th of this month, the value of options near the expiration date will often accelerate the decline, if there are long positions in March options, pay attention to guard against the loss of time value. However, stimulated by the relevant news, there are a lot of suspense in the market this week.

Based on the above market analysis, Haitong Futures Futures Department recommends: first-class investors: if 50ETF opens on Monday to continue Friday's rise, then there is a possibility of rising, and in view of the volatility is still in the downward channel, it is recommended to use equal call options to cover positions, if falling will get a certain buffer, rising can also get a certain profit. Secondary investors: currently implied volatility is hovering low, and recently accumulated a breakthrough opportunity, can use the April contract to build a cross-style strategy, that is, to buy peer option and put options at the same time. Third-tier investors: with the same secondary strategy, you can build a far-moon straddle strategy. (Wang Chao)

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