Global Coffee Production Expected to Decline in 2011-12

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) has released critical data on global coffee trade and production for the 2011-12 season, showing notable declines in both export volumes and production forecasts. For coffee professionals and enthusiasts tracking market stability, these figures provide insight into potential supply constraints and price impacts.

In short: The ICO expects global coffee production in 2011-12 to fall 4.3% to 128.5 million 60kg bags, following a peak export year in 2010-11. Early-season exports dropped 2% and producer inventories are also lower than the previous cycle.

Export Volumes Dip in Early 2011-12 Season

Data from the ICO on April 1, 2012, reveals that global coffee exports fell by 2% in the first five months of the 2011-12 season, totalling 41.5 million 60kg bags. This contrasts with the 42.3 million bags exported during the same period in 2010-11. However, February 2012 saw a 7% month-on-month increase, rising from 8.67 million to 9.32 million bags compared to the previous season’s February.

Production Forecast: 4.3% Lower Than Previous Season

The ICO forecasts the 2011-12 global coffee production at 128.5 million 60kg bags, a 4.3% decrease from the 134.3 million bags produced in 2010-11. This anticipated decline follows the historically high export volume of 104.5 million bags in 2010-11—an 11% rise over the 94.3 million bags exported in 2009-10.

Producer Inventory Levels Also Down

Alongside reduced exports and production, coffee-growing countries’ inventories of green coffee available for export have also fallen. The 2011-12 season saw stocks drop to 17.4 million 60kg bags, down from 18.45 million bags in the prior season. These lower inventories may further constrain supply in the coming months.

Historical Context: Record Exports in 2010-11

The 2010-11 season marked a record high for global coffee exports, with 104.5 million 60kg bags shipped worldwide. This represented an 11% increase over the 94.3 million bags exported in 2009-10. Such volumes contributed to strong market availability, but the downward trend in the 2011-12 season suggests a tightening market.

What This Means for the Coffee Market

The combination of falling production, reduced exports in early months, and lower grower inventories points to potential supply challenges in the 2011-12 coffee season. For importers, roasters, and retailers, these figures may signal tighter availability and possible price volatility as the year progresses.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the ICO report about global coffee exports in early 2011-12?

The ICO reported that global coffee exports in the first five months of the 2011-12 season fell by 2% to 41.5 million 60kg bags, compared to 42.3 million bags in the same period of 2010-11. However, February 2012 saw a 7% increase in exports to 9.32 million bags from 8.67 million in the previous season’s February.

What is the ICO’s production forecast for the 2011-12 coffee season?

The ICO forecasts that global coffee production in 2011-12 will be 128.5 million 60kg bags, a 4.3% decrease from the 134.3 million bags produced in 2010-11.

How did coffee exports in 2010-11 compare to previous years?

In 2010-11, global coffee exports reached a record high of 104.5 million 60kg bags, an 11% increase over the 94.3 million bags exported in 2009-10. This made it the highest-export year on record at that time.

What happened to coffee export inventories in 2011-12?

Export inventories of green coffee held by producing countries dropped to 17.4 million 60kg bags in 2011-12, down from 18.45 million bags in 2010-11, indicating reduced availability for export.

Why are these coffee production and export numbers important?

These figures are crucial for understanding potential supply constraints, market tightness, and price movements in the global coffee trade, especially for importers, roasters, and industry analysts tracking seasonal trends.

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