ICO 2017.6 Market report "Arabica prices are temporarily under pressure, Robusta benefits"

As the price of Arabica is as unstable as a somersault, the transaction price of Robustad rises. Total world coffee exports remained strong in June, with a total of 10.9 million bags, an increase of 8.8 percent over the same period last year and the highest stock reserves among all importing countries. As a result, although there is a worrying possibility of a frost in Brazil in July, the coffee market is in good supply.

The characteristic of the coffee market in June is that the price fluctuation leads to the horizontal movement of the price. The price of the ICO monthly composite index fell 2.4% to 122.39 cents per pound in June, and the price gap between the beginning of the month and the end of the month was very small. In the first two weeks of June, the daily average of the composite index was still relatively narrow, ranging from 122.11 cents to 124.55 cents per pound. This led to a dramatic drop in prices, with the price index falling to 116.51 cents a pound on June 22nd. On June 30th, the price index improved, rebounding to 123.83 cents a pound, slightly higher than at the beginning of the month.

The breakdown of the index into groups reveals the rise in Robusta prices, especially in the second half of June, when prices in several Arabica groups fell sharply in order to prevent the composite index from falling out of control. Amid the news that Vietnam's Robusta exports have shrunk, Robusta prices remain strong, rising 3.6% from last month to a grand view of 100 cents a pound. Prices fell significantly in the other three Arabica groups, with Colombia by 3.5%, other groups by 4.5% and Brazil's sun by 5.7%. Arbitrage on the New York Stock Exchange and London fell significantly by 22.2% to 35.07 cents a pound, the lowest since April 2008, as a result of the divergence in prices between Arabica and Robusta. Meanwhile, the daily volatility of the ICO composite index remained at 6.9 per cent.

World coffee exports rose to 10900000 bags in May, an increase of 8.8 percent over the same period last year. In the first eight months of the 2016-2017 production season, total exports increased by 3900000 bags compared with the same period last year, compared with 77400000 bags in the same period last year. Brazil's total exports have been declining for two years, with total exports of 22700000 bags in 2016-2017, a decrease of 5.9 per cent compared with the previous year. However, the contraction was more objective than expected because of poor harvests and too much hoarding by exporters. In addition, the decline in Brazil's total exports is partly due to exports from other countries. Colombia, Ethiopia, Honduras, Indonesia, Peru and Uganda, in particular, are facing supply shortages.

As the Colombian authorities' renovation program continued to bear fruit, Colombia's total exports increased to 9200000 bags, an increase of 7.2 percent compared with the period from October last year to May this year. Compared with last year, Indonesia's exports reached 2300000 bags, an increase of 60 per cent over the same period last year. At the same time, Honduras's total exports increased by 30% compared with the 2015-2016 production season. Vietnam's exports are expected to fall by 1/4, from 2500000 bags in April 2017 to 1900000 bags in May. Market reports indicate that supply and demand in coffee consuming countries is increasingly tight due to previous small production. Nevertheless, the total export volume from October to May is expected to be the same as in previous years, slightly more than 17 million bags.

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