Brazil Coffee Output to Drop Over 9% in 2024

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is set to harvest significantly less coffee in 2024 than a decade ago. The country’s National Supply Company (CONAB) released updated projections showing this year’s output will fall well below the levels seen in 2013, a key reference year in Brazil’s production cycle. For coffee professionals and importers tracking global supply stability, the numbers reveal a major shift.

In 2024, Brazil is expected to produce 44.57 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee. That’s a 9.33% drop compared to the 49.15 million bags harvested in 2013, a production cycle 'off-year' that already saw a slight decline.

What’s Behind Brazil’s Lower Coffee Output in 2024?

The primary cause of the reduced output is an extended drought in Brazil’s main coffee-growing regions. The dry conditions have forced many producers to reduce planted area and shift toward more drought-resistant coffee varieties. While this adaptation helps maintain some level of production, it comes with trade-offs in market preference and cup quality.

Arabica vs. Robusta: A Mixed 2024 Crop

Of the projected 44.57 million bags for 2024, 32.24 million (72.4%) are arabica, a 15.81% decrease from the previous year. The remaining 12.33 million bags (27.6%) are robusta, which has actually increased by 13.49% compared to 2023. This shift reflects growers’ efforts to combat drought through variety selection, though robusta remains less popular among specialty buyers.

How Brazil’s Production Cycle Usually Works

Brazil follows a biennial production cycle, with larger 'on-year' harvests followed by smaller 'off-year' yields. 2013 was an off-year, with 49.15 million bags, 3.3% lower than 2012. By contrast, 2024 should be an on-year — typically a time of rebound — yet the forecast shows a decline of over 9% from the 2013 benchmark, breaking the usual cyclical trend.

Smaller Plantings and Changing Practices

Total coffee planting area in Brazil has also decreased to 2.27 million hectares in 2024, down 1.9% from the previous year. The ongoing drought and shifting variety choices are reshaping long-term cultivation strategies, with more emphasis on hardy robusta and adapted growing techniques.

When Is Brazil’s Coffee Harvest?

Brazil’s coffee harvest season runs from late March to October each year. The majority of the country’s output feeds the global export market, with Germany, the United States, and Italy among the top destinations. Brazil accounts for roughly one-third of all international coffee exports.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much coffee is Brazil expected to produce in 2024?

Brazil’s 2024 coffee production is forecast at 44.57 million 60-kilogram bags, which equals 2.6742 million metric tonnes. This is a 9.33% decrease from the 49.15 million bags produced in 2013.

Why is Brazil’s coffee production down this year?

The main reason is prolonged drought in the country’s key coffee-growing regions, which has led farmers to reduce planted area and increase cultivation of more drought-tolerant robusta coffee varieties.

What’s the difference between arabica and robusta in Brazil’s 2024 crop?

Arabica makes up 72.4% of the 2024 crop (32.24 million bags), down 15.81% from last year. Robusta accounts for 27.6% (12.33 million bags), up 13.49%. Arabica is preferred for specialty coffee, while robusta is more resilient but less prized.

Is 2024 an on-year or off-year in Brazil’s coffee cycle?

2024 should be an on-year in Brazil’s biennial production cycle, which normally sees higher yields. However, this year’s output is down over 9% compared to the 2013 off-year benchmark, breaking the usual pattern.

How has Brazil’s coffee planting area changed in 2024?

The total coffee planting area in Brazil has decreased to 2.27 million hectares in 2024, down 1.9% from 2023, largely due to drought impact and shifting cultivation practices.

When does Brazil harvest coffee and who are its main export markets?

Brazil’s harvest runs from late March to October. Its top export markets include Germany, the United States, and Italy. Brazil supplies about one-third of the world’s coffee exports.

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