The population of coffee drinkers in China is soaring! Is there a global coffee crisis? Japanese coffee merchants urgently hoard goods!

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Coffee, which has almost become a national drink, may face a shortage crisis in a few years. According to Japanese merchant Marubeni's estimate, world coffee consumption will exceed production in five years' time. One of the major factors is the rise of coffee drinking in emerging markets such as Chinese mainland. The number of Chinese brand Luckin Coffee's exhibition stores in China is already close to that of Starbucks, the leading Starbucks. In May this year, it even went on the market in the United States. Now Japanese coffee chains have developed a sense of crisis and are looking for small-scale producers to expand their sources of coffee beans.

A cup of mellow and refreshing coffee is an indispensable companion for many people in the morning, but in a few years, the demand for coffee beans may exceed the supply, and the world will face the crisis of coffee shortage!

According to a report by Japan's NHK, Marubeni, a large comprehensive trading company in Japan, imports 30% of the coffee beans in the Japanese market, with more than 10,000 sacks in a warehouse alone, but the expert in charge of purchasing coffee beans for 23 years said bluntly that it would be difficult to supply coffee beans continuously in the future. Maru Red Beverage Raw material Minister Kazuhara Kajiwara said more bluntly: "if the current environment continues, the inventory will probably be empty after five years." "

According to Marubeni's estimate, the growth of world coffee bean production is stagnant, but consumption is growing at an alarming rate. By 2021, the two curves may be reversed. If consumption exceeds production, world coffee bean inventory may bottom out. One of the main reasons is the Chinese mainland market.

Since Starbucks entered the Chinese market in 1999, coffee shops have opened one after another in China, and consumption has doubled in the past five years.

At present, the person who has attracted the most attention in China is Luckin Coffee, who opened a quick exhibition store after the first store in October the year before last. By this month, it has opened more than 3000 stores in 40 major cities in China, close to the 3600 stores of the overlord Starbucks. Consumers can book through the smartphone APP and then pick up coffee at the store at a specified time. The waiting time is zero.

Zhao Yanyan, director of public relations at Luckin Coffee, said: "even if Luckin Coffee opened 3, 000 stores last week, plus all other brands, its density is not enough to meet the coffee needs of so many people in China. "

Kazuhiro Sasahara, minister of raw materials for Marubeni drinks, said: "Coffee shops in China are showing explosive growth and the number of coffee shops has increased. As a result, they drink coffee at home." In this way, it will go to a higher level, and China's coffee consumption will increase. "

Once consumption exceeds production, prices are hard not to be affected, and cheap and delicious coffee is likely to go into history.

Global consumption has increased, but production has decreased on the other hand. The environment suitable for growing coffee is preferably land with distinct rainy and dry seasons and temperature differences, but according to international research institutes, land suitable for growing coffee beans in Arabica will be halved by 2050 due to global warming. Japanese coffee chains have begun to plan ahead to expand the source of coffee beans, no longer limited to countries such as Brazil or Guatemala, which are mass-produced.

Tarly Coffee, Japan's fourth-largest, with about 700 stores, began importing beans from Laos last year, diversifying procurement sources and making supply more stable, even if it is produced on a small scale. Yoshiko Watanabe, director of Japanese procurement of Tarly Coffee, revealed: "when you go to the place of origin, you will hear that just now there are Japanese buyers or Chinese buyers who have bought these, and the producing countries will also choose who to sell to, and we also feel the grim situation. "

In addition to China, coffee consumption in Asian countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam is also rising. According to data released by the United States Department of Agriculture, consumption in 2018-19 has increased by 15% compared with five years ago, but production has increased by only 9%. With the increase in income in emerging markets and the westernization of diet, coffee will only become more and more popular.

Source: NHK, Japan

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