Routes are expected to resume, coffee trade is expected to return to normal, and coffee prices are expected to fall.
Recently, coffee trade has encountered no difficulties. First, it has encountered the influence of El Ni ñ o weather, and many coffee-producing countries have encountered extreme weather, which has also led to a decrease in coffee production, a decrease in production and a decrease in exports, leading to a high price of coffee.
In addition, the EU issued the EU deforestation regulations (EUDR) earlier, which stipulates that no individual or enterprise can sell products involving deforestation in the EU market, including coffee, cocoa and other products. The bill requires operators to investigate their products to ensure that they do not involve deforestation or lead to forest degradation. Otherwise, they will face a series of punitive measures, such as fines or restrictions, prohibition of exports and so on. The regulation will have an adaptation period of 18-24 months and will come into effect by the end of December 2024 at the earliest. Therefore, many importers do not dare to import coffee rashly, and if there is no effective communication and agreement with the European Union during the transition period, many coffee and cocoa countries will face economic problems.
Ships are usually used for shipping in the coffee trade, but recently there have been a lot of problems in shipping. Some countries are affected by El Ni ñ o weather, and some canals and rivers are plagued by drought. The serious impacts are Brazil's Amazon Basin and the Panama Canal. The Panama Canal is also an important channel for global trade, carrying a large number of ships and goods. All these conditions have affected the export of some coffee.
Recently, international shipping has been threatened by Houthi forces, and ships passing through the Suez Canal have been attacked by armed attacks, so a number of shipping giants around the world have announced that they have suspended the Red Sea-Suez Canal waterway or diverted to the Cape of good Hope. As a result, the limitation of container logistics for transporting coffee around the world has been extended.
In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict this year have reduced consumption in some areas, and inflation has also led to a reduction in consumption. This year's relatively high interest rates have increased the cost of trade. As a result, the price of coffee futures has risen sharply recently, with the main contract price of Arabica futures breaking through 200 cents / pound, and the assistant contract price of Robusta coffee futures approaching 3000 US dollars / ton.
Recently, there is good news that the price of coffee is expected to fall in the near future. First of all, the El Ni ñ o weather has entered a peak, and the phenomenon may last until March-April 2024 and will die out. As a result, production in some coffee-producing countries began to recover, and exports also tended to increase. In addition, international shipping companies have received news that the Prosperity Guardian initiative will be implemented. As a result, shipping companies have the opportunity to resume preparations to cross the Red Sea. The price of coffee is expected to fall in the future.
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