As global coffee prices continue to rise, India's coffee exports will soar

Recently, as commercial ships in the Red Sea area continue to be attacked by Houthi forces, maritime commercial ships have no choice but to stop operation or make a detour. This approach has led to a significant increase in shipping costs and time, especially coffee beans. It is reported that the price of robusta coffee futures on ICE has reached its highest level in nearly 16 years. Robusta coffee closed at $18 at $2950 a tonne (1000 kilograms), the highest price since the futures began trading in January 2008. In addition, Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture has earlier predicted that due to the influence of El Ni ñ o, there will be a drought in 2024, so Vietnam's coffee production in 2023 may fall by 10% in the 24 crop year.

Recently, though, the price of Arabica fell 1.6% to $1.8115. But some Arabica producing countries have reported that production will be cut, so the industry is also worried about rising prices in the future. Recently, the Costa Rican coffee institute ICAFE said that due to the weather, there will be irregular rainfall. Coupled with a lack of labour, Costa Rica's coffee harvest in 2023 / 24 is expected to be about 13 per cent lower than in the previous season.

However, Reuters reported recently that Indian coffee exports could grow by as much as 10% in 2024, as rising global prices prompt European buyers to pay a premium to increase purchases from India. India, a South Asian country known as a tea producer and the world's eighth coffee grower, mainly produces Robusta, but also produces some relatively expensive Arabica varieties.

According to the president of the Indian Coffee exporters Association, due to production problems leading to persistently high global prices and strong demand for Indian coffee, especially Robusta coffee beans, tower predicts that Indian coffee exports will grow by 10% this year.

3/4 of India's coffee production is mainly exported to Italy, Germany and Belgium. Some Indian coffee exporters say Indian coffee is grown in the shade, picked by hand and treated by the sun, usually above global benchmarks. The premium for coffee this year is higher than normal due to production shortages in other regions. Although export demand is good, traders are waiting for an increase in supply, which may lower local prices. The Indian State Coffee Council estimates that India's production is likely to increase to 374200 tons in the 24th quarter of 2023, up from 352000 tons last year. It is mainly due to the torrential and non-seasonal rainfall in the past December, which has limited the increase in production.