International Robusta coffee prices hit record highs due to numerous problems

Recently, the two major coffee futures contracts rose respectively, with Arabica up 4.5 cents / pound and Robsta up 178 US dollars / ton, or 5.96%, once again setting an all-time high. As early as January, due to the tight supply of Robusta around the world, it had already broken the record and reached a new high. As a result, it broke the record again and reached an all-time high at the end of the month. The main reasons are low inventories, tight supply and the shipping situation in the Red Sea.

Production and export problems Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture earlier predicted that due to the influence of El Ni ñ o, there would be a dry climate at the beginning of 2024. Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023 crop year may fall by 10%, by 3.8 million bags, and the total output to 27.5 million bags. And as prices continue to rise, Vietnamese farmers are reluctant to sell coffee, hoping to make more profits when prices are higher. And in Brazil, according to the Brazilian National Coffee Council, there is a little rain during the coffee berry period, but the persistence and instability of rainfall also lead to uncertainty about Brazil's final production in 2024. According to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority, torrential rains disrupted picking and drying in some coffee producing areas, affecting production and coffee exports.

The problem of low supply and inventory due to the low global supply of Robusta and the increasing demand for coffee, many areas say that coffee stocks are low. The standard inventory of London's Robusta also fell to 31130 tons, the lowest in recent times. Moreover, half of the 120000 tons of coffee beans exported by Vietnam earlier were to fulfill orders from the previous season. This year, about 80, 000 to 150000 tons of coffee beans cannot be fulfilled as scheduled and will not be delivered until the next production season.

The situation in the Red Sea the situation in the Red Sea is the most serious problem recently. As a result of continued armed attacks by Houthi forces near the Strait of Mander in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Robusta coffee beans from Vietnam, Indonesia, Uganda and India cannot quickly reach consumer countries such as Europe and the United States. Many trading and shipping companies can only choose to shut down or detour the Cape of good Hope and will charge a "war risk surcharge". Although the United States formed an escort alliance of "Guardians of Prosperity" in mid-December last year, it achieved little success. Moreover, the United States and Britain jointly carried out air strikes against the Houthi forces, but did not ease the situation, but made the situation more tense. As a result, global shipping consultants expect spot freight rates on related routes to continue to rise in the coming weeks because of the Red Sea and Suez.