Vietnam coffee market crisis, Robusta prices continue to rise, traders go bankrupt

Recently, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association released a report saying that due to a number of factors, the price of Vietnamese robusta coffee has risen recently, and the expected price of coffee in the near future is 72 million to 73 million dong / ton, compared with 7150 to 72.5 million dong / ton earlier.

International inventories are low, Robusta stocks are less than 30,000 tons, and Arabica coffee stocks are at their lowest level. The reason for the low inventory is that coffee production in various countries is low, resulting in low exports. Cecaf é said Brazilian exports fell 0.4% in 2023, but the group said that despite a decline compared with the same period last year, exports of robusta coffee increased by 212%. Mainly, shipments to China more than tripled in 2023. Moreover, India is also a Robusta grower, and there are reports that Indian coffee exports could grow by as much as 10% in 2024, as rising global prices prompt European buyers to pay a premium to increase purchases from India.

And the problem in the Red Sea continues, disrupting coffee transportation time, which needs to be increased by two to three weeks. Some shipping companies can only choose to suspend operations or divert to the Cape of good Hope and consider imposing a "war risk surcharge". Another source pointed out that some coffee buyers avoid importing Robusta coffee beans from Vietnam. As Houthi forces attacked ships on the Suez Canal, the freight of imports from Vietnam increased, and many importers turned to buy Robusta coffee beans in Brazil, which is cheaper and shorter in terms of shipping costs. And the response plans of the United States and Britain are not effective, but make the situation more serious.

In addition, due to the rising price of robusta coffee, Vietnamese farmers do not want to easily sell their coffee beans. These coffee farmers are waiting to wait until the price goes up higher before selling it. Therefore, it is very difficult for traders to perform the sales contract.

According to Vietnam Network, Mai Cau, a coffee dealer in Danong province, has declared bankruptcy and, according to the company's owner, Tran Thi Mai, has nearly US $1 million in outstanding goods and therefore intends to settle the outstanding debt in the subsequent process. The main reason for the debt problem this time is that traders have signed pre-sale contracts with coffee buyers, but some Vietnamese coffee farmers are reluctant to sell their coffee beans to traders, resulting in traders being unable to fulfill the sales contracts. If you choose to increase the price to buy, there will also be a loss.

The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has earlier stated that in November, Vietnam exported 120000 tons of coffee beans, but half of them were to fulfill orders from the previous season, and it is estimated that about 8 to 15 tons of coffee beans this year may not be fulfilled on schedule and can only be paid for in the next season.