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Global warming will reduce the production of coffee beans, and the industry will face a major crisis.

Published: 2026-02-25 Author:

Last Updated: 2026/02/25, Will Corby, director of coffee and social impact at global trader Pact Coffee, has warned that any further increase in global warming poses a major threat to the coffee industry. Earlier, the EU climate service today reported that global warming has exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Will Corby, director of coffee and social impact at global trader Pact Coffee, has warned that any further increase in global warming poses a major threat to the coffee industry. Earlier, the EU climate service today reported that global warming has exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The 1.5 ℃ rise, which exceeded the "pre-industrial" level for the first time, reached the limits set out in the long-term objectives of the Paris Agreement. At the historic United Nations Climate Action Conference in 2015, it was said that a rise of no more than 1.5 ℃ would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. At present, the temperature of global warming has broken through this limit, which poses a major threat to the future of Arabica coffee beans. Arabica is an important variety of coffee, accounting for about 60% of global coffee production.

Rising temperatures have brought extreme water shortages, uneven rainfall, hail that kills crops and a higher risk of plant diseases in the coffee belt. As a result, coffee supply has failed to meet demand in the past two years. And according to forecasts, global warming is likely to reach 2.5 ℃ by the end of the century, which will eliminate the vast majority of coffee production.

The director also said that in the past decade, we have seen the obvious impact of climate change on the country of origin, which is devastating for farmers. In some relatively low-altitude areas, farms can no longer grow high-quality Arabica, leaving farmers no choice but to farm further into the mountains, leaving them heavily in debt and leading to deforestation, which is one of the main causes of global warming, which will be an endless cycle.

To this end, many countries and coffee companies are developing new varieties to deal with the situation. For example, early Starbucks announced the opening of six new varieties of Arabica coffee that can cope with climate change, with good yield and excellent taste. In addition, Colombia has also developed Cenicafe 1, a new variety based on Kaddura, which has good flavor performance and resistance to leaf rust and coffee berry disease.

In addition, Robusta is becoming more and more important. Compared with Arabica coffee, Robusta has always been regarded as inferior coffee. But the impact of climate change threatens the future of the coffee industry. Investing in Robusta production is becoming more and more important, especially since Robusta is more climate-resistant than Arabica. Robusta is currently being tried in some Arabica coffee-growing countries, such as Nicaragua. Coffee farmers are likely to grow more refined varieties of robusta, and in the future there will be more robusta beans or new varieties of coffee to solve the climate crisis.