Coffee review

ICO released a January report saying that coffee prices have been unstable recently due to uncertainty in all aspects.

Published: 2024-04-16 Author:
Last Updated: 2024/04/16, Recently, a number of coffee-producing countries released coffee reports in January, although there has been an increase in production, but coffee prices continue to be unstable due to uncertainty in all aspects. According to the international coffee organization ICO, the price of coffee in January was 176.41 cents per pound, up 0. 5% from December last year.

Recently, a number of coffee-producing countries released coffee reports in January, although there has been an increase in production, but coffee prices continue to be unstable due to uncertainty in all aspects. According to the international coffee organization ICO, the price of coffee in January was 176.41 cents / lb, up 0.4% from December last year, and prices fluctuated between 171.08 cents / lb and 185.54 cents / lb. But the price of robusta coffee is at its highest level since November 1994, when it was 153.33 cents per pound. And ICO also reported that global coffee exports rose 13.6 percent in December from a year earlier to 1.2168 million bags, and from October to December, global coffee exports rose 6.8 percent year-on-year to 32.4119 million bags.

In Brazil, the weather is still dry, with Somar Meteorologia reporting that the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest coffee producer, received 30.9mm of rainfall in the past week, 49 per cent of the historical average. But Safra&Mercada, a Brazilian consultancy, felt little impact from the drought and raised the estimate of Brazil's 2023 Coffee crop from 58.9 million bags to 61.1 million bags. In addition, Conab, a Brazilian crop forecaster, earlier predicted that Brazil's 2024 Arabica coffee production would increase 5.4% year-on-year to 58.1 million bags.

Robusta coffee has remained high because the supply of Robusta coffee from Vietnam is tight and the local purchase price is not optimistic. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, the recent price of central highland raw coffee ranges from 77 million to 79 million dong / ton. And Vietnamese producers said they refused to supply coffee beans until the contract was renegotiated. As a result of the recent surge in global robusta coffee prices, domestic traders in Vietnam believe that "producers are unable to deliver at the price previously agreed" and are now seeking to renegotiate the contract. It is problems between major producers and buyers that have led to a tightening of global supply and further price increases.

In addition, affected by the incident, coffee buyers and traders expressed their avoidance of buying Robusta coffee beans in Vietnam. In addition to this incident, another reason is that the Red Sea crisis continues, although the US-British coalition forces have recently launched a crackdown on the Houthi organization, but to no avail. The Houthi also continued to attack commercial ships, resulting in shipping companies choosing to suspend and divert their routes, resulting in a sharp rise in transportation costs and time.

As a result, coffee stocks continued to decline on ICE exchanges in the United States and ICEU exchanges in Europe in January. Among them, the number of coffee stocks on the US ICE exchange fell by 1.5 per cent to 270000 bags, one of the lowest ever. In addition, the daily stock of Robusta coffee reached 480000 bags, a decrease of 15.4% from December 2023.

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