A record high! New York coffee futures price 343 cents/pound

According to media reports, although Robusta coffee futures have fallen recently, coffee futures prices are hitting an all-time high due to heightened concerns about global coffee shortages. On December 10th, the coffee industry benchmark American C coffee futures closed at 334.03 cents per pound.

This year, due to setbacks in crop yields in major coffee-growing countries, the futures price of Arabica coffee varieties in New York rose more than 4%, breaking the highest data since the statistical benchmark began in 1970 and reaching an all-time high of US $3.43 per pound. The price has risen 80% this year.

The main reason for the impact is that Brazil suffered the worst drought in nearly 70 years, resulting in severe water shortages in several major coffee growing areas, leading to premature withering of coffee buds and a significant impact on coffee production. At the same time, fires occurred frequently in many countries in South America under drought and high temperatures, and Brazil was severely affected. Between January and September this year alone, more than 22.38 million hectares of woodland in Brazil were destroyed by fires, including many coffee plantations and sugar cane plantations.

Even if the rainy season begins in October, the resumption of rainfall will not be able to make up for the damage caused by the drought to Brazilian coffee plantations, and the rainfall is unstable, making the market increasingly concerned about the future supply of coffee. In addition, the Central American region was hit by tropical storms, resulting in torrential rains, floods and landslides, resulting in damage to local roads, electricity and other facilities, as well as falling leaves and fruits in coffee growing areas, affecting coffee supply.

Volcafe is one of the world's largest traders of Arabica and Robusta coffee, supplying beans for 80 billion cups of coffee a year. In response to the current situation, Volcafe recently lowered its production forecast for Brazilian Arabica coffee to 34.4 million bags (60 kg / bag), a decrease of 11 million bags from the forecast in September.

In addition, the market is also worried about Vietnam's Robusta coffee production. According to the recent forecast for the Vietnamese industry released by the United States Department of Agriculture, due to drought during the critical growth period of coffee cultivation and heavy rain at the beginning of the harvest, coffee production is forecast to be 27.5 million bags in 2023 and 20.1 million bags in 2024, both of which are lower than the previous June forecast.

Although some coffee-producing countries have reported an increase in production recently, the market believes that they cannot make up for the lack of production in countries such as Brazil and Vietnam. In response, Volcafe also predicts that there will be a shortage of 8.5 million bags in global coffee production in 2025 and 2026, which he believes is an unprecedented fifth-year deficit.

In addition, poor coffee harvests in many countries and growth in the global coffee consumption market have led to a decline in global coffee stocks, as well as geopolitical, increased shipping costs and forced speculation in some commodity trading areas. these factors have pushed up the price of coffee.

According to a research assistant from Sucden Financial, the coffee futures market is going through a very strong fundamental phase, which is expected to keep coffee prices high. This further increases the costs of traders and importers, which will eventually be passed on to consumers.

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