Severe loss of coffee production caused by drought in Brazil is expected to be reduced by 30%.

Jean Philippe, a 25-year-old agricultural technician, measured the height of a 2-year-old coffee tree on a plantation in Eloy Mendes (southern state of Minas Gerais). The result is 80cm, but if the state of Minas Gerais has sufficient rainfall this year, the normal height of the coffee tree should be 1.3m.

Minas Gerais is Brazil's largest coffee producer, accounting for 51% of Brazil's national coffee production and 40% of Brazilian coffee exports, leading Brazil's food crop production. Affected by the dry weather, the state's coffee production has dropped greatly this year. Coffee production last quarter was 27.66 million bales, equivalent to 56 per cent of the national output. On average, one in every five coffee shops in the world uses coffee from a farm in Minas Gerais.

According to Breno Mesquita, director of the Minas Gerais State Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Association (Faemg) and chairman of the coffee agriculture committee of the Brazilian Federation of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (CNA), the loss of coffee production is projected to be about 30 per cent so far. In addition to the forecast of a significant reduction in the amount of coffee produced, the quality of coffee is also expected to decline.

A reporter from the S ã o Paulo newspaper visited the Eloy Mendes coffee plantation last week, and even laymen can tell from the dry leaves that the coffee trees are underdeveloped. Coffee trees bloom in September and October, and their flowering, fruiting and other growth processes depend on good rainfall. Santa Clara Felipe, the owner of the farm, explained to reporters: "the ideal planting conditions for coffee trees are as follows: the temperature is between 15 and 25, the annual rainfall must reach 1500-2000 mm, and the rainfall time should match the flowering cycle of the coffee tree." If it doesn't rain during the flowering cycle, the flowers will dry and the fruit will stop growing. He predicts that the actual production of coffee this year will only reach 30% of the forecast.

The coffee plantation belongs to the Coopama organization, which works with the Machado district (MG), which has 1800 farmers. Fernando Casita Vieira, executive director of the organization, said that due to the continued lack of precipitation in various parts of Brazil since January this year, it is estimated that coffee production will drop by at least 20% this year, and the quality of coffee will also be greatly affected.

Since most coffee plantations have been harvested, the biggest problem facing the industry is the pricing of coffee, which has also caused insecurity among many producers. The Minas Gerais State Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Association (Faemg) is cautious. "the coffee industry does not have a long-term price policy, it is determined and managed by growers, and pricing should take into account how to balance the balance of payments last year and some of the possibilities that will arise in the coming months and 2015," Breno Meskita said. "