Coffee Futures Drop as Sugar Rises on May 28

Coffee traders watched nervously on Wednesday as key futures contracts sank to their lowest levels in months, driven by seasonal harvest pressures and a wave of position unwinding. For anyone tracking global coffee price trends, the big moves on May 28 offer a clear signal of how supply cycles and market sentiment collide in real time.

On May 28, NY’s ICE July arabica futures fell 2.7% to $1.745 per pound—the lowest in around two months—and London’s LIFFE July robusta dropped 3.9% to $1,907 per tonne. Both contracts broke through key 100-day moving averages, triggering further technical selling.

Why Coffee Futures Fell Sharply

Both arabica and robusta futures saw heavy selling as major growing regions accelerated their harvests. This increased supply, combined with speculators closing out long positions, pushed prices below critical technical support levels. The downward momentum was strong enough to push both NY and London contracts through their 100-day moving averages during the session.

Key Coffee Futures Prices on May 28

• ICE July arabica: Down 4.85 cents (2.7%) to $1.745 per pound, hitting a low near $1.708—its weakest in ~2 months—and breaking below the 100-day moving average at $1.7242.
• LIFFE July robusta: Fell 77 dollars (3.9%) to $1,907 per tonne, dipping under the 100-day average of $1,965 and touching a February low of $1,903.

What Happened with Cocoa and Sugar

While coffee dropped, cocoa saw mixed movement. ICE July cocoa closed down just 2 dollars (0.07%) at $3,029 per tonne, though the May 27 high had been its highest in 32 months. London’s September cocoa bucked the trend, rising 5 pounds (0.3%) to $1,911 per tonne. On the sugar front, ICE July raw sugar gained 0.11 cents (0.6%) to $17.13 cents per pound, while LIFFE August white sugar rose 2.1 dollars (0.5%) to $467.40 per tonne.

How Market Mechanics Affected the Slide

The selloff wasn’t triggered by a single event but by a combination of factors: accelerating harvests in key coffee-growing regions increased the flow of beans to market, while traders who had bet on higher prices (long positions) chose to exit those bets en masse. These moves were amplified when futures prices dipped below widely watched technical indicators like the 100-day moving average, prompting automated and manual sell orders that drove prices lower still.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did coffee futures fall to multi-month lows on May 28?

Coffee futures dropped due to increased harvest supply from major growing regions and speculative traders closing long positions. Both NY’s ICE July arabica and London’s LIFFE July robusta broke below their 100-day moving averages, triggering more selling and pushing arabica to around $1.708 and robusta to $1,903—their lowest points in months.

What were the exact price moves for arabica and robusta on May 28?

ICE July arabica fell 4.85 cents (2.7%) to $1.745 per pound, with a low near $1.708. LIFFE July robusta dropped 77 dollars (3.9%) to $1,907 per tonne, briefly hitting $1,903—the lowest since February.

Did cocoa and sugar futures also fall on the same day?

No. ICE July cocoa dipped only slightly, closing down 2 dollars (0.07%) at $3,029 per tonne, while London’s September cocoa rose 5 pounds (0.3%) to $1,911. ICE July raw sugar gained 0.11 cents (0.6%) to $17.13 cents per pound, and LIFFE August white sugar rose 2.1 dollars (0.5%) to $467.40 per tonne.

What is the significance of the 100-day moving average in coffee futures trading?

The 100-day moving average is a key technical indicator used by traders to assess longer-term price trends. On May 28, both NY’s arabica and London’s robusta futures prices fell below this level, which often triggers automated sell signals and can accelerate downward momentum as traders react to the technical breakdown.

Why do harvests affect coffee futures prices?

When major coffee-growing regions enter peak harvest season, the increased supply of beans reaching the market tends to put downward pressure on prices. This seasonal influx can lead to a glut in futures markets, especially if demand doesn’t keep pace or if traders anticipate lower future prices.

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