Raw Sugar and Arabica Coffee Hit Multi-Year Lows

If you’ve been tracking global commodity markets recently, you may have noticed some sharp moves in coffee and sugar futures. These aren’t just numbers on a screen — they reflect real shifts in supply expectations, trader sentiment, and global demand. For coffee drinkers and industry watchers, understanding these price movements helps explain not just cost trends but also what might be ahead for your morning cup.

In short: ICE raw sugar futures fell more than 2% to their lowest since 2010, with 5 settling at 14.32 per pound. Arabica coffee hit a one-year low, dipping to 1.5085 per pound intraday, while 5 closed at 1.5290. Both markets saw heavy technical selling and external pressures this week.

Why Raw Sugar Futures Crashed to 2010 Levels

Raw sugar futures on ICE experienced sharp losses, driven by ongoing technical selling and bearish fundamentals. The May contract dropped 0.32, or 2.2%, to close at 14.32 per pound — the lowest since May 2010. At one point during the session, the price hit 14.25, down 2.7% for the day. This decline marks a third consecutive day of losses and follows India’s recent approval of export subsidies for raw sugar, which added downward pressure. Traders are now watching the March contract, which expires on February 27.

Arabica Coffee Falls to One-Year Low

The Arabica coffee market also saw significant downside. The May contract plunged to an intraday low of 1.5085 per pound — its lowest in a year — before closing slightly higher at 1.5290, up 0.25 or 0.2%. Despite the small gain, the contract suffered an 8.2% loss for the week, its biggest since October 2014. The sharp weekly decline contributed to the one-year intraday low, reflecting broad selling pressure. Meanwhile, May Robusta futures fell 16, or 0.8%, to 1,974 per ton.

Cocoa Futures Buck the Trend

While sugar and Arabica coffee were falling, cocoa futures found support. New York’s May contract rose 4, or 0.1%, to 2,979 per ton. In London, May cocoa futures gained 16, or 0.8%, to 2,015 per ton — reaching their highest level since January 15. The rally pushed London cocoa to a five-week high, showing relative strength compared to other soft commodities this week.

What Determines Futures Prices for Coffee and Sugar?

Commodity futures like coffee and sugar are influenced by a mix of factors: global supply and demand forecasts, weather conditions in producing regions, currency movements, trade policies, and technical trading patterns. In the case of sugar, India’s export subsidy announcement added supply-side pressure. For Arabica coffee, broad-based speculative selling and weak macro sentiment contributed to the steep weekly drop. Cocoa, by contrast, saw buying interest that lifted prices to multi-week highs despite the broader commodity weakness.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did ICE raw sugar futures fall to a 2010 low?

ICE raw sugar futures dropped due to technical selling and bearish news, including India’s approval of export subsidies. The May contract fell 2.2% to 14.32 per pound, its lowest since May 2010, and briefly touched 14.25 intraday.

How low did Arabica coffee futures go this week?

Arabica coffee futures hit an intraday low of 1.5085 per pound — a one-year low — before closing at 1.5290. The May contract lost 8.2% for the week, the largest weekly drop since October 2014.

What happened to Robusta coffee futures?

May Robusta coffee futures declined 16, or 0.8%, to settle at 1,974 per ton, reflecting continued pressure on the robusta market alongside arabica.

Did any coffee or sugar-related futures rise this week?

Yes. London May cocoa futures rose to a five-week high of 2,015 per ton, up 16 or 0.8%, while New York May cocoa futures gained 4 to 2,979 per ton.

Why do technical sellers impact commodity futures prices?

Technical sellers act based on chart signals and price momentum rather than fundamentals. Their selling can accelerate price declines, especially during periods of weak demand or negative sentiment, as seen in this week’s sugar and coffee markets.

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