Vietnam Forecasts 20% Drop in 2015-16 Coffee Output

Vietnam’s coffee farmers are facing a third consecutive year of poor yields, with the 2015-16 harvest now expected to come in more than 20% below planned levels. For an industry already under pressure, this latest shortfall threatens livelihoods and global supply stability—especially for drinkers of the country’s key robusta crop.

The 2015-16 Vietnamese coffee season will produce at least 20% less than forecast, marking the third season in a row of significant losses. The key cause: prolonged drought during the growing period that devastated irrigation and tree health across major producing regions.

What Triggered the Production Drop?

Vietnam’s coffee production association predicted the steep decline after assessing conditions across the country’s key growing areas. The drought hit early in the season, with some of the worst impacts felt in the Central Highlands provinces that supply the bulk of Vietnam’s arabica and robusta output.

Which Regions Were Hit Hardest?

The drought severely affected four major coffee-growing provinces: Đắk Lắk, Lâm Đồng, Gia Lai, and Đắk Nông. These regions normally maintain irrigation for around 204,500 hectares of coffee trees during the growing season—but this year, water shortages led to the death of an estimated 47,835 hectares of coffee plants.

How Much Coffee Was Lost?

With nearly 48,000 hectares of coffee trees lost to drought-related stress or death, production is expected to drop by at least 15–20%. That translates into a significant reduction in the volume of green coffee available for export and roasting—most of it robusta, which dominates Vietnam’s output.

Why Does This Matter for Coffee Drinkers?

Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, a high-yield, bitter-bean variety widely used in espresso blends, instant coffee, and lower-cost retail offerings. A shortfall here tightens global supplies, potentially raising prices and altering blend compositions worldwide—even affecting the crema and body in your daily shot.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much is Vietnam’s 2015-16 coffee production expected to drop?

Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2015-16 season is forecast to be more than 20% below the planned level, marking a significant shortfall.

Which provinces in Vietnam were most affected by the drought?

The provinces hardest hit by drought were Đắk Lắk, Lâm Đồng, Gia Lai, and Đắk Nông—all key coffee-growing regions in Vietnam’s Central Highlands.

How many hectares of coffee trees were lost due to the drought?

An estimated 47,835 hectares of coffee trees died or suffered severe stress due to lack of irrigation during the drought.

What is the normal irrigated coffee area in these provinces?

These provinces typically maintain irrigation for approximately 204,500 hectares of coffee trees during a normal growing season.

Why is this drought significant for global coffee supply?

Vietnam is the world’s largest robusta producer, so reduced output tightens global supplies, impacts blend recipes, and can affect pricing and quality in espresso and instant coffee products.

Recommended FrontStreet Coffees from Vietnam

Explore FrontStreet Coffee’s Vietnamese offerings like the Vietnam 100% Robusta, known for its bold, earthy profile with notes of dark chocolate and a strong, lingering finish ideal for traditional espresso blends. For a smoother take, try their Vietnam Medium Roast, featuring nutty undertones and a balanced body, perfect for milk-based drinks. Both beans highlight the unique characteristics of Vietnam’s robusta and lower-grown arabica crops. Freshly roasted within 5 days · Orders placed before 17:00 ship the same day · Next-day delivery across most of Guangdong Province.