Robusta Coffee Falls to 5.5-Year Low Amid Vietnam Exports

The price of Robusta coffee dropped sharply on global markets this week, hitting its lowest level in over five years — and the reason isn’t hard to find. Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, exported more coffee than expected in December, while still holding onto unsold stocks from the previous harvest. That flood of supply, with no matching jump in demand, sent prices tumbling.

Bottom line: 3-month Robusta coffee futures closed at $1,420 per metric ton on Monday, falling as low as $1,415 — the weakest price since June 2010. That’s a $21 drop from the prior session, or 1.5% lower in one day.

Why Did Robusta Coffee Prices Plunge?

The primary driver was a surge in Vietnamese exports. According to official customs data, Vietnam shipped out 152,000 metric tons of coffee in December 2023 — that’s 58.6% more than in November, and well above both market forecasts and government estimates. Traders noted that farmers had held back beans from the previous crop, expecting higher prices, but those hopes never materialized. Now, that stockpile is finally hitting the market.

How Much Coffee Is Vietnam Actually Exporting?

December’s 152,000-ton figure isn’t just a spike — it’s a clear sign of underlying supply pressure. A London-based trader commented: “From the previous season, there is a very large remaining stock. It looks like there is absolutely no supply issue at the moment.” In other words, Vietnam’s coffee pipeline is still full, even after months of shipments.

What Happened in the Futures Markets?

On Monday, March Robusta coffee futures settled down $21, or 1.5%, at $1,420 per ton. During the session, the price dipped as low as $1,415 — marking the lowest point since June 2010. Analysts pointed to broad selling in commodity markets by investment funds as another factor weighing on prices.

What About Other Commodities Like Cocoa and Sugar?

While coffee took the spotlight, other commodities saw mixed moves. London cocoa futures ended nearly flat, supported by reduced port arrivals in Ivory Coast. May London cocoa rose by £1 to £2,117 per ton. Meanwhile, March white sugar futures inched down by $0.4, or 0.1%, closing at $426.80 per ton.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Robusta coffee prices fall to a five-and-a-half-year low?

Robusta coffee futures dropped due to a large increase in exports from Vietnam — the world’s second-largest producer — and the release of leftover stocks from the previous harvest. December exports reached 152,000 metric tons, far exceeding expectations, and the continued supply surplus caused the March contract to fall to $1,415 per ton, the lowest since June 2010.

How much coffee did Vietnam export in December 2023?

Vietnam exported 152,000 metric tons of coffee in December 2023, a 58.6% increase from November. This figure was higher than both market predictions and official government estimates, contributing to downward pressure on global Robusta prices.

What was the lowest Robusta coffee price in January 2024?

The lowest price for March Robusta coffee futures in January 2024 was $1,415 per metric ton, reached during intraday trading on January 18. That’s the weakest level since June 2010, reflecting heavy supply-side pressure.

Did other commodity markets also decline in early January?

No — while Robusta coffee dropped sharply, London cocoa futures remained steady, supported by lower port arrivals in Ivory Coast, with May cocoa rising £1 to £2,117 per ton. March white sugar futures saw only a slight decline, closing at $426.80 per ton after falling $0.4 or 0.1%.

What role did investment funds play in the coffee price drop?

Investment funds were making broad sell-offs across commodity markets, and that selling pressure contributed to the decline in Robusta coffee futures. This macro-level activity compounded the impact of already high supply levels from Vietnam.

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