Coffee shops are full of capital pouring into the money-throwing circle. The economies of scale have not yet been highlighted.

The economy is slowing down. Have a cup of coffee. When we are looking to expand the industry against the market in a period of economic weakness, the coffee chain is clearly an alternative landscape originating from a foreign land. This new face emerging in Shenzhen Huaqiang North and other business circles is not only a contest between imports and national style, but also the intersection of efficient work and slow-paced life. Freshly ground coffee is not only tempting the taste buds of more and more Chinese people, but also attracting the influx of industrial capital, and the expansion of coffee shops is spreading to second-tier cities.

"this year, my friends often ask me why I want to accelerate the opening of stores in times of economic weakness. Do you want to stop for a moment? " Li Xianglu, director of Axe Coffee China, told the Securities Times that the company has accelerated its expansion this year, with only four stores in Shenzhen at the end of 2011, while six new stores have been opened in Shenzhen so far this year, and strive to open three or four new stores in the fourth quarter.

The expansion of Aix Coffee is by no means an exception. Starbucks recently became a hit with stores in the Lingyin Temple business district, making the world's largest coffee chain once again the subject of complaints from the Forbidden City after withdrawing from the Imperial Palace in 2007. Looking at the large-scale collective expansion of branded coffee chains in China, this is just a small episode.

Chen Zhiwu, an economist and professor at Yale University, believes that globalization and global population mobility have brought unprecedented opportunities for brand chains like Starbucks, which not only greatly save advertising expenses, but also have a low marginal cost per cup of coffee.

The new face of Huaqiang North in Shenzhen

Since the beginning of this year, international well-known coffee chains such as Starbucks and COSTA have continued to expand on a large scale in Chinese mainland, and Pacific Coffee, a subsidiary of 00291.HK, has also made rapid progress with the strong channel advantages of China Resources Group. Under the temptation of huge business opportunities, coffee chains collectively threw money into the enclosure, and the war gradually spread from first-tier cities to second-tier cities.

Li Xianglu put the latest Aix Coffee store in Huaqiang North, Shenzhen. According to the plans of the relevant departments, the coffee shop is regarded as one of the economic substitutes for the depressed electronics industry in Huaqiang North. "many people feel that the hasty flow of people in Huaqiang north is at odds with the slow atmosphere of coffee shops, but our idea is to cater to consumer demand and create new demand," said Li Xianglu. "

"judging from the precedents of developed countries such as Europe and the United States, the explosive growth of the coffee industry is often in a period of economic recession," Li Xianglu told reporters. Chinese mainland's coffee market is in a rising range, against the backdrop of economic downturn at home and abroad. while cutting stores in the local market, international counterparts continue to increase investment in China.

Li Xianglu's point of view can be traced. If we look back to 2001, we will see that when the Internet bubble economy burst in the United States, the new consumer goods represented by Starbucks not only did not suffer a heavy blow, but once showed strong vitality, and sales increased steadily.

This year, Starbucks boss Howard Schultz said publicly that in response to the slowdown in the US market through overseas expansion, the company will have 1500 stores in China by 2015, despite the recent economic slowdown. But he is very optimistic about the Chinese market.

The geometric expansion rates of COSTA and Pacific Coffee in China are also staggering. The reporter consulted COSTA's official website and learned that in September alone, COSTA opened nine new stores in Chinese mainland, achieving a high pace of one store in nearly three days.

Bosmiao, president of COSTA Asia, aimed the competition at Starbucks, "if you can't kill Starbucks, go home", claiming to take 1/3 of the market share of China's coffee chain market, reaching 2500 stores by 2018. So far, COSTA has opened more than 200 stores in many cities in China.

In addition, Pacific Coffee now has 100 stores in mainland China, and the company has laid down a strong expansion blueprint, announcing that it will gradually expand to second-tier cities. Fast food giant McDonald's is also making great efforts to transform its stores and add a McCoffee section in an attempt to turn the coffee chain into a new profit growth point.

In the eyes of many people in the industry, the coffee shop is a unique social place, and the time of a cup of coffee is like a pleasant time. "when you walk into a coffee shop, one person can think about things, and two people can talk about things." Li Xianglu told reporters that combined with the analysis of past experience, in times of economic downturn and bad business, consumers are more willing to gather in social places such as cafes to communicate and discuss business opportunities. "this is not a very cyclical industry."

Bai Fang, secretary general of the Beijing Coffee Industry Association, expressed the same view. "Coffee shops from infancy to prosperity are closely related to human brainstorming and other communicative activities," she said. On the other hand, when the economic situation is bad, investors are more willing to put money into the sunrise industry, and China's coffee market is precisely a sunrise industry. "

From luxury to Popularization

Since the beginning of autumn, the small grain coffee in Pu'er City, Yunnan Province has entered the picking period. Pu'er, not only because Pu'er tea is famous at home and abroad, but also the largest coffee growing area in the country, is known as "the coffee capital of China". According to the statistics of Yunnan Coffee Industry Association, the coffee planting area of the province has exceeded 1 million mu.

Complementing each other with the cultivation of coffee in Yunnan over one million mu is the rise of domestic coffee consumption. Tang Guojiang, CEO of Pacific Coffee, said that at present, China's coffee chain is in its infancy, with an annual growth rate of about 30% to 50%.

Between the touch of the cup and lips, taste enjoyment is quietly awakened, and the rich cultural flavor of coffee makes this imported product have more and more fans. So much so that in recent years, chatting online in a coffee shop with an Apple computer or iPad has become an eye-catching label for urban petty bourgeoisie life.

Li Xianglu told reporters: "the pace of development of the company has always maintained a steady style, and the acceleration of store opening this year is due, on the one hand, to the improvement of internal operating capacity, and on the other hand, to the increasing recognition of coffee by domestic consumers."

However, the reporter learned that this year's store opening environment is also no lack of "organic in danger" factors. According to Li Xianglu, rental costs have not declined significantly, and rents in popular business areas are still very strong. "but compared with previous years, because other retailers have shrunk their battle lines, there is much more space for us to choose sites." According to reports, at present, all Aix Coffee stores are directly operated stores, with an average opening cost of 1.6 million yuan, which includes half a year of operating expenses.

At present, ground coffee is still a relatively luxury consumption in Chinese mainland, and it has not yet spread to the mass market. In the impression of ordinary consumers, the market price of a cup of coffee is about 30 yuan, with a high gross profit margin.

Bai Fang told reporters that the gross profit margin of a single cup of coffee is indeed relatively high, and the proportion of raw materials in the cost is almost negligible. She calculated to the reporter: "200 yuan a kilogram of coffee beans are already high-quality, one kilogram of coffee beans can produce 100 to 140 cups of coffee." In this way, the cost of a single cup of freshly ground coffee beans is less than 2 yuan. At present, the price of coffee beans used by most coffee chains on the market is only about 100 yuan. "

In Bai Fang's view, it will take at least five years for China's coffee consumption to achieve blowout development. "the popularity of coffee needs two conditions: one is to further increase the recognition of coffee consumption, and the other is to change the price of coffee from luxury goods to parity." It has been revealed that the average price of freshly ground coffee in China is 2 ~ 2.5 times higher than that in overseas mature markets.

Economies of scale have not yet been highlighted.

Bai Fang, who has been engaged in the coffee industry for nearly 15 years, is not only an expert from the trade association, but also the principal of a coffee training school. "the school mainly trains coffee shop operators and baristas and other practitioners, and many students have Miaoman's blueprint and want to run personalized cafes," she told reporters. " However, she said: "We all pour some cold water first. After all, we have seen too many cases of bankruptcy over the years."

She said that although the profit of a single cup of coffee is high, it is not easy for coffee shops to make profits. "on the one hand, although coffee beans account for a low proportion of raw material costs, accessories such as milk are not cheap, and rent and labor costs are becoming more and more expensive. On the other hand, domestic consumption per store is relatively low. Coffee shops in Europe and the United States sell an average of 500 to 600 cups of coffee per day, which can achieve economies of scale, while most domestic coffee shops are less than 100 cups. "

In Bai Fang's view, the idea of running a coffee shop cannot be in the spring and snow. If you insist on "only selling coffee" without replenishing profits, it will be very difficult to maintain a profit point. "by contrast, many bakery chains have unique advantages. These bakeries usually sell cheap coffee with less than 15 yuan, so the coffee is supplemented by dim sum such as bread and cake. this model is conducive to the promotion of coffee consumption." In fact, professional and pure coffee shops have flourished in recent years. Before that, the business models of "coffee + western food" and "coffee + cake" have been ploughing the market for many years. It has played an important role in spreading coffee culture and cultivating coffee consumption habits.

Li Xianglu agrees with this. "running a coffee shop is an interesting thing, but it's really not easy to make money." At present, the price of Aix Coffee is higher than that of Starbucks, mainly because the former uses exquisite pastries as a supplement to coffee profits.

It is worth noting that while the coffee chain wantonly attacked the city and territory, it also faced the risks brought by high costs and fierce competition in the industry. According to Li Xianglu, raw materials such as coffee beans and sugar, as well as labor costs have risen 30% year on year so far this year.

In addition, the core business circle is gradually saturated, so the competition risk is highlighted. The reporter noticed that in the newly completed Century of Excellence Center in Futian CBD, Shenzhen, there are four coffee shops with similar locations in a building. Li Xianglu believes that there is indeed a poor competitive environment in some regions, but on the whole, he is still optimistic about the future growth potential of the industry.

Bai Fang told reporters that for strong brand chains, due to the support of large amounts of capital and rich experience, they do not focus on assessing the profits of individual stores during the market training period, and face less comprehensive risks.

At the same time, she stressed that individuals need to be cautious in investing in coffee shops. "individual investment in coffee shops, lack of control of professional teams, lack of detailed market research and business menu planning, can easily lead to sustained losses and break the capital chain." Running a coffee shop is not an easy task, and it really requires 101% of your energy. "

Some coffee chains have opened their stores in Chinese mainland.

The origin of the brand the first store in the mainland is currently the goal of opening stores in the mainland with the number of stores in the mainland

Starbucks (Starbucks) in 1971, about 230stores in the United States in 1999 and 1500 stores in 2015

COSTA in 1978, the number of British stores reached 2500 in 2018 in 2006.

Pacific Coffee (Pacific Coffee) in 1992, Hong Kong exceeded the long-term target of 1000 stores in 2011.