Different factions of coffee market, horse racing enclosure, local cafes fall into an endless cycle.

"I'm either at the cafe or on my way to the cafe." Listeners may curl their lips and say disapprovingly that the catchphrase, which represents American coffee culture, has become OUT. Indeed, an army of various styles of coffee is pouring in, targeting the Chinese people's pockets. Whether it is American style, British style, Korean style, literature and art control or gem, behind the horse racing enclosure in different factions of cafes, what remains the same is the influx and pursuit of capital. The cold of the old coffee and the hot of the new coffee, the sweetness of the mixed operation and the bitterness of the dream coffee, has the beautiful era of the coffee shop really come?

1 is no longer the dominant era of Starbucks

This is no longer the era of Starbucks, the winner's website, and it seems that overnight, Beijing cafes have sprung up everywhere. Baidu map search "Sanlitun Cafe", you can easily get 251 results. In Sanlitun, which is famous for its fashion, you can find any cafe that belongs to your adjustment, and it has attracted many coffee lovers to follow the clues to find and flock to it. Such scenes are played out every day: diners waiting in line to turn the stage, while the coffee shop next door is sparsely populated.

Han Fan er's massive invasion of coffee and maverick niche cafes have made the established coffee legion restless. In June this year, Starbucks, located on the ground floor of Beijing's International Trade Mall, was officially closed. The reason why the first Starbucks store on the mainland, which was established in January 1999, "collapsed" was widely rumored to be that the rent was too high to afford. However, a month later, when Starbucks reported third-quarter results and global same-store sales increased by 8%, Starbucks finally gave an official statement on the closure of international trade stores in Beijing: "the relocated store area is larger." the goal of operating 1500 stores in China by 2015 remains unchanged. "

COSTA, which only entered the Chinese market in 2007, has not only successfully removed the hat of "Starbucks No.2", but also completed round after round of horse racing enclosure. COSTA is expanding at a crazy rate, completing a leap from 101to 200in a year, and in 2012, COSTA completed its 200th store in China.

Deep-pocketed cafes seem to be sorry for the meaning of the word "chain" if they don't expand. Pacific Coffee, which was only acquired in June 2013 and officially included in China Resources Wanjia, has also set a target of 1000 stores.

Raising a bunch of pigs or raising a child?

In the eyes of eager venture capitalists, China's coffee market has huge room for development. "We are not short of money, but good projects." The cycle of training cafes is about three years, even if it is not profitable in the short term, but as long as there is a definite business model, it is not extravagant to make a profit in the future.

But the truth is, many coffee shops are still in the stage of "looking beautiful", and the few who really make money are the few. Wang Dongsheng, founder of Food still International and former McDonald's and Kim Hans executive, believes that compared with opening a chain, honestly running a restaurant will at least not lose money. But the reality is that investors have regarded the business model set up by Starbucks as a classic: big money + opening a chain = the success of cafes.

As a result, financiers who are not short of money are pouring their money into cafes with low barriers, good cash flow and easy to form a circle culture. this blind investment leads to the fact that the average life expectancy of China's catering industry is only 2.5 to 3 years. The capital of the international style is obviously playing a bigger game. Even if there is no profit in the short term and the single store is not profitable, the "big brands" with super bargaining power and brand effect can easily control the inflow and outflow of raw materials in order to achieve the extension of upstream and downstream. For example, coffee may not make money, but coffee cups must make money. And those who mix wind fresh force, want to survive in the gap, they can only do both eat and drink business, in line with the Chinese food and beverage habits.

What if I don't have any money? Joining is undoubtedly the best choice. But you have to think clearly about the difference between joining and going straight from the very beginning. Whether to raise a child or a bunch of pigs. "of course, the way of playing is different. The former takes care of it for life, while the latter sells it when it gets fat."

(3) the local cafe is in an endless cycle.

A deeper problem ensues. In the dazzling army of cafes, why are local forces always so lonely? Why are a large number of monomer cafes in China struggling to death while cafes in South Korea are booming in the same Asian countries?

In the eyes of the idealistic coffee roaster Uncle Dou, the eager for quick success and quick profit of the growers at the front of China's coffee industry chain is the key to the unhealthy development of China's coffee market. "in terms of climatic conditions, the coffee in Yunnan must be no worse than the coffee in South America. The key is our mentality." Uncle Dou said that Yunnan in China has the highest yield of coffee per mu in the world, with an average of 200 kilograms of coffee beans per mu, while in Colombia, only 80 kilograms of coffee beans are produced per mu, while only 60 kilograms are produced in Guatemala and Ethiopia. In addition to high output, high speed is also a distinct "Chinese characteristic". "it takes six to seven years for people to plant trees to pick fruit, but it only takes us four years." One kind of tree began to pinch the stopwatch, resulting in that coffee trees in China are only 12 years old, but in foreign countries, 12-year-old coffee trees are still in full bloom.

If there are no boutique coffee beans, the quality of the products will be lost to the "foreign monks". In order to pursue the same quality, they can only choose to import, so the cost will rise, and in order to make up for the cost, the price will lose some customers, thus reducing the revenue of the coffee shop. Gradually, the business of coffee shops is becoming more and more difficult, either closing down, or "increasing revenue and reducing expenditure". In short, it is paired with selling other meals and using lower-quality but cheaper coffee beans. China's local cafes seem to be in an endless cycle.

As for those few monomer cafes that maintain their own characteristics, they also place too much added value on the shopkeeper's "nothingness". Those start-up cafes that have sprung up everywhere to realize their dreams and personal feelings of "not being exploited by their bosses" have been congenitally deficient due to lack of business models from the very beginning.

Miss Chen, who quit her job in a foreign company and operated a caf é for many years, commented in one sentence and never forget to ask herself why she opened the cafe in the first place. If there is only a dream, the final harvest can only be a bubble.

(responsible Editor: Leo)