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The reappearance of the holy baby phenomenon may have an impact on the commodity market.

Published: 2026-02-03 Author: World Gafei

Last Updated: 2026/02/03, Due to the rising surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, the El Nino phenomenon may reappear this year, posing a potential threat to several poor and backward countries in the Pacific, the Australian Meteorological Office said on the 11th. At that time, agricultural products in Asia and Africa, such as robusta coffee beans, granulated sugar, cocoa beans and palm oil, may once again face tight supply and demand. Wall Street Journal

Due to the rising surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, the El Nino phenomenon may reappear this year, posing a potential threat to several poor and backward countries in the Pacific, the Australian Meteorological Office said on the 11th. At that time, agricultural products in Asia and Africa, such as robusta coffee beans, granulated sugar, cocoa beans and palm oil, may once again face tight supply and demand.

Since the beginning of this year, meteorological units around the world have generally predicted that there will be no climate anomalies this year, the Wall Street Journal reported. However, all forecasting models used by the Australian Meteorological Office suggest that the baby phenomenon is likely to make a comeback this year or early next year, pointing out that ocean surface temperatures in parts of the eastern Pacific are already 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the long-term average.

The government meteorological agencies of the United States and Japan also predict that the holy baby phenomenon is threatening to be promoted to high school, with a probability of more than 50%.

As the chances of the Holy Baby phenomenon increase this year, analysts have focused on the risks facing agricultural markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, such as robusta coffee beans, sugar, cocoa beans and palm oil.

During the Holy Baby phenomenon in Southeast Asia between 2015 and 2016, there was a widespread drought, which led to reduced production of coffee, palm trees and sugar cane, palm oil hit a four-year high last year, and the price of Robasta coffee beans soared by 50 per cent.

Societe Generale, the French bank, pointed out in its latest research report that the timing of the formation of the holy baby phenomenon will be critical because "it will strain the supply and demand of commodities, especially soft commodities".

However, there is still no effective method to predict the severity of shock. According to the Australian Meteorological Office, a total of 27 holy babies have been observed so far in 1900, but only 18 have caused widespread droughts in Australia.

The US Climate Forecast Center (US Climate Prediction Center) pointed out on its website that the phenomenon of Holy Baby comes immediately after the phenomenon of anti-Holy Baby, which is extremely rare. The previous anti-baby phenomenon just ended in January this year.

The price of Robasta coffee beans (Robusta) soared 50 per cent last year as a result of the widespread drought in Southeast Asia caused by the previous holy baby phenomenon. (photo / Reuters)