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Brazil is mired in severe drought and coffee production has fallen sharply.

Published: 2026-01-16 Author: World Gafei

Last Updated: 2026/01/16, According to foreign media reports, since the beginning of this year, Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has suffered a severe drought, the Brazilian coffee growing industry has been hit, and production is expected to fall sharply. Since January, the rainfall in Brazil's main coffee producing areas has been only half of the historical average. Research shows that the continuous drought in Brazil this year is the worst anomaly since the black ice phenomenon hit Brazil in 1975.

According to foreign media reports, since the beginning of this year, Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, has suffered a severe drought, the Brazilian coffee growing industry has been hit, and production is expected to fall sharply.

Since January, the rainfall in Brazil's main coffee producing areas has been only half of the historical average.

The study shows that this year's persistent drought in Brazil is the worst abnormal climate since Brazil suffered a "black ice" phenomenon in 1975, when more than 70% of coffee harvested in Brazil failed.

Arabica beans coffee futures, which produce nearly half of Brazil's coffee, have risen 77 per cent to $1.9545 per pound so far this year, and analysts expect futures prices to rise another 15 per cent to $2.25 per pound by the end of the year.

The Brazilian Coffee Association expects Brazilian coffee production to fall 18% this year to 40.1 million bags (60kg, or 132lb, standard weight) by the end of next month's harvest. Last year, coffee production in Brazil fell 3.1 per cent from a year earlier.

The International Coffee Organization warns that the impact of extreme drought and high temperatures on coffee bean production is difficult to estimate, the damage to coffee shrubs could last for years, and coffee bean production in 2015 and 2016 could be even worse.