Brazil Coffee Output Falls Due to Severe Drought

This year’s coffee supply chain has one big question: why are global arabica prices skyrocketing? The answer lies in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, where an extreme drought is hammering coffee farms. Since January, rainfall in Brazil’s main coffee-growing regions has been just half the historical average. The ongoing dry spell is now ranked as the most severe abnormal climate event since 1975’s ‘black frost,’ which wiped out over 70% of the country’s coffee crop.

Brazil’s arabica coffee production is forecast to drop by 18% by the end of the harvest season next month. That translates to an estimated 40.1 million 60kg bags for the year — a major shortfall in global supply.

How Severe Is This Year’s Drought in Brazil?

Since January 2024, key coffee-growing areas in Brazil have received only 50% of their usual rainfall. According to research, the current drought is the worst abnormal weather event since 1975, when a catastrophic black frost damaged more than 70% of Brazil’s coffee plants. The prolonged dry conditions are already affecting tree health, flowering, and fruit development — all critical to the next harvest.

What’s Happening to Coffee Prices?

In response to the shrinking supply, arabica coffee futures have surged. So far this year, prices for arabica beans — which make up nearly half of Brazil’s output — have risen 77%, reaching $1.9545 per pound. Analysts expect another 15% increase by the end of the year, potentially pushing prices to $2.25 per pound. These price shifts will ripple through the global specialty and commercial coffee markets.

What Does Brazil’s Coffee Association Say?

The Brazilian Coffee Association forecasts that the 2024 harvest will yield around 40.1 million bags of coffee (each weighing 60kg, or roughly 132 pounds). That’s an 18% decline compared to previous expectations. For context, last year’s production already fell by 3.1% year-on-year. The combination of this year’s drought and last year’s dip puts additional pressure on global inventory levels.

What Are the Long-Term Risks for Coffee Production?

The International Coffee Organization has warned that the combined effects of extreme drought and high temperatures could inflict lasting damage on coffee plants. The stress on coffee shrubs may impair their productivity for multiple years. Some fear the 2024–2025 season could mirror or even surpass the losses seen during the 2015/2016 cycle, depending on how long adverse conditions persist.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much has Brazil’s coffee production dropped this year?

Brazil’s coffee production is expected to fall by 18% by the end of the harvest season, dropping to an estimated 40.1 million 60kg bags. This follows a 3.1% decline in the previous year.

Why is Brazil’s coffee output falling?

The main cause is a severe drought that has reduced rainfall in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions to just half the normal levels since January. This is the worst dry spell since 1975’s black frost event.

How have coffee prices responded to the drought?

Arabica coffee futures have increased by 77% so far this year, reaching $1.9545 per pound. Analysts predict prices could rise another 15% by year-end, potentially hitting $2.25 per pound.

Has Brazil experienced coffee crop failures like this before?

Yes, in 1975, Brazil faced a ‘black frost’ that destroyed over 70% of its coffee crop. The current drought is being compared to that event as one of the most damaging climate anomalies in recent history.

Could the drought affect future coffee harvests too?

Yes, the International Coffee Organization warns that extreme heat and drought can damage coffee plants for multiple years, reducing their yield potential well beyond the current growing season.

When is Brazil’s coffee harvest season?

Brazil’s main coffee harvest typically occurs between May and September, with the current season expected to conclude next month. The full impact of the drought on this harvest is now being assessed.

Top FrontStreet Brazilian Single Origins to Try

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