Costa Rica Coffee Harvest to Rise 4.5% This Season

After two consecutive seasons of steep declines caused by coffee leaf rust, coffee farmers and traders are watching closely as Costa Rica’s next harvest approaches. The country, known for high-quality arabica beans, has faced major setbacks—but now there’s cautious optimism.

According to the Costa Rican Coffee Institute (ICAFE), the upcoming harvest season from October 2024 to September 2025 is projected to see a 4.5% increase in production compared to the previous year. That growth follows two years of severe losses due to coffee leaf rust, a fungal disease that has hammered yields across Central America.

What’s Behind the Production Bounce Back?

The 4.5% production increase forecast for Costa Rica’s 2024–2025 coffee season reflects gradual recovery after the damage wrought by coffee leaf rust. Over the past two harvests, the disease significantly reduced yields not just in Costa Rica but across Central American producing countries. That supply squeeze contributed to an almost 80% surge in international arabica coffee prices.

ICAFE’s report signals that better disease management, improved crop health, and favorable growing conditions may be helping stabilize and slowly rebuild production volumes. While the increase is modest, it suggests a turning point after prolonged strain on the region’s output.

Why Did Coffee Prices Spike Before?

The sharp rise in arabica coffee prices—nearly 80% over two years—was driven largely by supply shortages across Central America. Coffee leaf rust severely weakened coffee trees, reducing fruit yield and quality. With Costa Rica and neighboring countries hit hard, global arabica supplies tightened, pushing prices upward on international markets.

This price pressure affected both commercial and specialty roasters, highlighting how regional fungal outbreaks can have worldwide market impacts. The expected production uptick in Costa Rica could help ease some of that pressure moving forward.

What Is Coffee Leaf Rust and Why Does It Matter?

Coffee leaf rust (Hemileia vastatrix) is a fungal disease that attacks coffee tree leaves, reducing photosynthesis and eventually leading to lower berry yield and poor bean development. It thrives in warm, humid conditions common to many coffee-growing regions, including Costa Rica’s high-altitude plantations.

The disease has been a persistent threat in Central America, capable of wiping out significant portions of a farm’s yield if not managed properly. In recent years, it contributed to major production declines in Costa Rica, prompting concerns about long-term supply stability and pricing volatility in the specialty coffee sector.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much is Costa Rica’s coffee production expected to increase this season?

Costa Rica’s coffee production is forecast to increase by 4.5% for the harvest season running from October 2024 to September 2025, according to the Costa Rican Coffee Institute (ICAFE).

What caused the previous decline in coffee production?

The decline was primarily due to coffee leaf rust, a fungal disease that severely affected coffee trees across Costa Rica and other Central American countries over the past two harvest seasons, drastically reducing yields.

Did coffee prices go up because of the lower production?

Yes, international arabica coffee prices rose nearly 80% over the last two years due to reduced supplies from Central America, including Costa Rica, as a result of coffee leaf rust and subsequent lower harvests.

What is coffee leaf rust and how does it affect coffee trees?

Coffee leaf rust is a fungus that infects coffee leaves, impairing their ability to photosynthesize. This leads to weaker trees, fewer coffee cherries, and lower bean quality, directly impacting overall yield and farm income.

Will the production increase help lower coffee prices?

While a 4.5% increase is modest, it may help alleviate some upward pressure on global arabica prices by improving supply availability, especially if other affected Central American countries also see recovery.

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