Lucky Kudi containment, small town coffee dream still have a chance?

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A spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics announced yesterday that the national youth unemployment survey in cities and towns of equal age groups has been suspended since August, while the national unemployment rate reached 5.3% and the youth unemployment rate reached 21.3% according to the previous July data. On the other hand, many young people who choose to work independently have early planned a way out for their lives, that is, to go back to the small county to open a coffee shop!

The attention about opening a coffee shop in a small county has always been very high, and there are more than 5 million notes about opening a coffee shop in a small county in a book. For more reasons, or for them, it seems more meaningful to go back to their hometown and do what they like than the struggle and pressure of life in big cities.

Seeing the low threshold of opening a shop and the free control of working hours, it has become the first choice for most young people in small towns. On social media, many "bosses" shared their years of opening a coffee shop in a small county.

Among them, many bloggers also wrote down their "successful" store opening experience on the platform, sharing how they earn 100,000 yuan a month. In this cycle, people who are concerned about the industry naturally lift all boats and set off the atmosphere of going back to the city to open a shop.

These other people's small-town coffee shops, originally in pursuit of the idea of a unique life, have become a common choice. With so many cafes springing up under the small place, people create their own uniqueness on the one hand and seize the market through price competition on the other. It seems that it is not as easy to open a shop as an owner. Some netizens have shared their "pain" of being a coffee shop owner on the Internet, saying that they can not only make no money, but also be bound by the shop.

And this is just the beginning of the story. It is capital that can afford to fight a price war, and the battle between Lucky and Cudy is the main battlefield of this competition. Previously, the price of a single cup of coffee was between 20 and 40, as did Starbucks and Pacific Coffee, according to data from first-tier cities. For new entrants to this market, the only way to share the market is through denser outlets and lower prices.

Judging from the marketing activities in the past year or two, from 9.9 to 8.8, some even 0 yuan, while the capital is competing with each other, coffee consumers have run out of wool. On the other hand, the owners of independent cafes may silently become cannon fodder. Originally, they planned to use the coffee shop with low pricing and low profit and quick turnover. In the face of the single-digit coffee price war between Lucky and Kudi, there is no room to fight back. What you want is to make money, and what you want capital is the market. Coffee shops priced at 10-20 yuan are most seriously affected by the impact of big brands.

According to the latest quarterly results released by Lucky last week, 1485 stores were added in the second quarter, and so far the total number of Luckin Coffee stores has reached 10836, while Cudi has expanded from 4, 000 in June to 5, 000 in August. Both belong to the same founder in origin, and the methodology is also the same attribute, through the integration of a large amount of capital, tell a good development story, and then further integrate more bullets, open more stores.

Lucky's revenue turned to profit in the first quarter of 2023 and further increased to 4.437 billion in the second quarter, which further validated the model. According to the crazy store opening model of Lucky and Cuddy, more second-and third-tier cities are bound to become a sinking battlefield for both, and the coffee war has only just begun.

Coupled with the economic impact of the past two months, people tend to spend more conservatively. Careful consumption, careful calculation of unit price. Some shopkeepers said on social media that their turnover plummeted because of the hand-to-hand fight between Cudy and Ruixing.

The wave of shop opening has turned into a wave of shop closures, and some shopkeepers have already felt a chill, saying that the struggle between the two is accelerating the closure of independent cafes. Even some stores that are still sticking to it are facing a price squeeze that has halved orders.

Lucky people said in an interview with the media that the 9.9 store celebration will last at least until the end of next year. Perhaps, for the young people who chose to flee the city and decided to go back to the small town to open a coffee shop to realize the boss's dream: this dream has only just begun.

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