Coffee production in Colombia is expected to increase, and the Robusta growing area may be expanded in the future.

According to USDA, Colombia will produce 11.5 million bags (60 kilograms each) of coffee in 2023, an increase of 7.5 per cent over the previous cycle. In general, El Ni ñ o is accompanied by dry weather and high temperatures, which have a negative impact on the potential of Colombian coffee crops and inhibit coffee production performance. However, from the results, in recent years, from La Nina phenomenon to El Ni ñ o phenomenon, the loss caused by La Nina phenomenon is usually greater than that caused by El Ni ñ o phenomenon, so it is expected that the output of 23prime will increase in 24 years.

According to FNC, Colombia produced 10.6 million bags (60 kg each) of coffee in 2022 / 23, 9.1% less than in 2021 / 22. This decline is due to adverse climatic conditions such as La Nina, which occurred at the beginning of 2022 Compact 23. Excessive rainfall above historical normal levels and too many clouds caused by La Nina weather have reduced production. In addition, the reduction in fertilizer use has also hindered the development of the industry due to the surge in global fertilizer prices.

Comparison of monthly precipitation (mm) and historical average in some coffee-growing provinces from October 2022 to September 2023

Although production in 2023x24 will increase, Colombian production is still well below the 14 million bags in 2019, and it is difficult to return to the previous forecast of 12 million bags, which reduces the room for Colombian coffee to move in the global coffee market. The reduction in government stimulus measures led to lower-than-expected yields, which eventually led to the aging of coffee crops and had a negative impact on production potential.

On the export side, Colombian coffee exports are expected to reach 12 million bags in 2023 / 24, an increase compared to 2022 / 23. North America is the main export market for Colombian coffee, accounting for more than 44% of total shipments. The EU is not far behind, accounting for more than 23 per cent of the total.

Share of Colombian coffee export market

Export performance is related to the increase in domestic consumption in Colombia, and better exports are likely to stimulate new growth in imports, which are expected to import 2.3 million bags of coffee from abroad, with Brazil being the main import market. Colombia buys coffee from outside mainly for domestic consumption, as Colombian coffee is mainly supplied to foreign markets.

It is worth noting that Robusta Genetics, introduced in Colombia in 2018, has completed the health quarantine period. Some micro-batches of Colombian robusta coffee should have been tested on a partially commercial basis. Colombia's potential Robusta has an area of 80, 000 hectares and is expected to produce 3.2 million bags. Robusta crops may be expanded in non-traditional Arabica growing areas to replace coffee imports, particularly in the area of soluble coffee. Coffee production may be further increased in the future.

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