Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association expects exports to decline next year and prices to remain high

According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, due to falling production, non-carry-over stocks and growing local demand, Vietnam's coffee exports in the 24th quarter are likely to be lower than a year ago, so export prices will remain high.

The president of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association said at the 27th Asian International Conference held in Ho Chi Minh City on December 5-6 that Vietnam, the world's largest producer of Robusta coffee, is currently in the 2023 / 24 harvest season. but only about 50% of the total acreage has been harvested and production is expected to be much lower than expected.

It added that due to unfavorable weather and reduced acreage, production in the new season could reach 1.6 million to 1.7 million tons, compared with 1.78 million tons in the previous quarter. In addition to the decline in production, there has also been a decline in exports. Vietnam's coffee exports from January to November in 2023 fell by nearly 13% compared with the same period in 2022, and may fall by 15% for the whole year.

According to Intimex Group, one of Vietnam's export coffee companies, coffee-growing areas in south-central Vietnam are shrinking. The main reason is that coffee brings a profit of 200 million dong per hectare, but avocados can provide 111.5 billion dong, more than five times that of coffee, and many farmers choose to grow avocados. And according to the rapid decline of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the country has about 700000 hectares of coffee grown, but in fact it may be more than 600,000 hectares.

Over the past two years, there has been a considerable deficit in the global coffee supply, which has seriously affected stocks and prices. Global consumption of robusta beans increased by 10 per cent in 2023, while Arabica production fell by 8 per cent, as increased demand pushed up the price of robusta beans. The price of coffee beans in Vietnam was very high at the beginning of the 24th quarter of 2023, about 60000 dong per kilogram. At the beginning, such a high price has never happened in the history of Vietnamese coffee.

The new harvest season is expected in Indonesia and Brazil in April-May, so European demand for Vietnamese robusta coffee will remain strong. However, with declining production, insufficient inventories and an increase in the domestic coffee market, Vietnam is likely to export 1.4 million tons of coffee in the 24th quarter of 2023, down from the 23rd quarter of 2022. The price of Robusta coffee beans will continue to rise until at least April next year before Indonesia and Brazil enter the new harvest season.

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