Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association expects Vietnam coffee prices to continue to rise in 2024
Recently, the Vietnamese Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that the price of coffee in Vietnam is expected to continue to rise in 2024 due to a serious shortage of coffee supply. The spot price of robusta coffee this week is about 67200-68000 dong / kg (US $2.77-2.80), up 90-1000 dong / kg from last week and 8000 dong / kg from the beginning of December.
The coffee season in Vietnam is from November to March of the following year. At the beginning of the new season in November this year, the spot price of coffee reached 60000 dong / kg, the highest price in history at the beginning of the new season. The reason for the high price is that export traders have high procurement demand and fear that they will not be able to buy much coffee again in April or May, so they buy coffee beans in large quantities at the beginning of the production season. Coffee beans were hardly available in June in the last year 2022 Universe 23.
Local farmers are reluctant to sell their coffee beans because prices are expected to continue to rise. Local coffee farmers say they are not selling coffee beans now because coffee prices have been rising and farmers are waiting to wait until prices rise even higher to prepare for the upcoming Lunar New year. This has also led to great difficulties for traders in fulfilling their sales contracts.
In November, Vietnam exported more than 120000 tons of coffee beans, but half of it was to fulfill orders from last season. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, about 80 to 150000 tons of coffee beans this year may not be fulfilled as scheduled and will not be delivered until the next production season.
On the price side, coffee prices are expected to remain between 60000 and 70000 dong in the coming months because of severe supply shortages, and may even rise. It will not fall until April and May when the new harvest season in Indonesia and Brazil begins. However, the impact of the current El Ni ñ o phenomenon will continue and will intensify by the end of 2023, adversely affecting the Robusta coffee producing areas of several coffee producing countries. It is still necessary to keep an eye on whether the meteorological department will continue to extend the end time of El Ni ñ o.
According to an earlier announcement by Rabobank, Brazil is greatly affected by El Ni ñ o weather, especially in the two major Robusta producing areas of Langdonia and Bahia, which are expected to reduce production by about 5% and 10%. And Indonesia's Robusta also expects production to be reduced. So the price of robusta coffee is likely to continue to rise in the future.
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