Coffee supply in Vietnam began to increase, and coffee prices began to fall.
Earlier, the Vietnamese Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that the price of Vietnamese coffee is expected to continue to rise in 2024 because of coffee supply shortages. The coffee production season in Vietnam is from November to March of the following year, but when the new production season began in November this year, the price of coffee reached 60000 dong / kg, the highest price since the beginning of the new season in history. The recent price is as high as 70000 dong.
But recently, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association said that according to the survey, the supply of coffee has increased, so prices will fall in the near future. According to the results of the survey, the price of coffee in the central highland region has dropped by 1100 dong / kg, fluctuating between 68100 and 68900 dong / kg. Specifically, the price of coffee in the Lindong producing area also dropped to 68100 dong / kg, the lowest of the four areas surveyed. The price of coffee in Jialai is reduced to 68800 dong / kg. The price of coffee in the Dalak and Danong producing areas has dropped to 68900 dong / kg, which is currently the highest in the local area.
Vietnam's coffee exports continued to grow sharply in December 2023, reaching the highest level in the past nine months, reaching 190000 tons, up 53.9% from November 2023, but still slightly down 3.5% from the same period, according to figures from the Presidential Bureau of Accounting. Exports reached US $538 million, an increase of 51 per cent over November 2023 and an increase of 26.4 per cent over the same period. Looking back at 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports were estimated at 1.61 million tons, down 9.6 per cent from 2022. However, due to the sharp rise in export prices, the average export price of coffee reached 2604 US dollars per ton in 2023, an increase of 14.1 per cent over 2022. As a result, turnover increased by 3.1%, reaching an all-time high of $4.18 billion.
In addition to the increase in coffee supply in Vietnam, there are other factors in the world market that bring prices down. Recently, the weather in Brazil's main coffee-growing areas has improved, reducing concerns about drought and is expected to remain positive in the near future. And the expiration of coffee futures contracts and the recovery of the dollar have also put a little pressure on prices. According to European ICE futures data, Robusta prices for March delivery fell $95 / tonne to $2481 / tonne, while May delivery prices fell $92 / tonne to $2757 / tonne. In the United States, Arabica for delivery in March 2024 fell 9.7 cents / lb to 188.3 cents / lb and May 2024 delivery price fell 9.55 cents / lb to 186.2 cents / lb.
As of 28 December, the standard Arabica coffee stock of the United States ICE Futures Company had increased sharply by 11458 bags (60 kg / bag), bringing the total number of coffee bags currently stored to 258399 bags, although it failed to break through the lowest reserve in more than 24 years, but this recovery is a positive sign for future supply prospects.
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