The international coffee organization ICO released its December report: production will increase in the future.

According to a report released by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee grew by 0.1% to 168.2 million bags in the 2022/23 coffee year. The reasons for stagnating growth rates include changes at the regional level. The coffee world is divided into an expanding America and a shrinking rest of the world.

Production in Asia, Oceania and Africa declined by 4.7 per cent and 7.2 per cent to 49.84 million bags and 17.9 million bags, respectively, attributable to adverse weather conditions affecting major producing countries. Viet Nam and Uganda, in particular, experienced larger declines in production, offset by increases in the Americas, where total production was 100.5 million bags, especially in South America, where 4.8 per cent growth was mainly driven by Brazil's 8.4 per cent biennial increase. In addition, Arabica production in the Americas region increased by 1.8 per cent to 94.4 million bags, but Robusta production decreased by 2.0 per cent to 74.2 million bags.

World Coffee Market Overview

Severe weather conditions noted in 2022 and continuing into 2024 will negatively impact the outlook for coffee bags in 2023/24. El Niño is expected to affect Asian regions, particularly Indonesia and Viet Nam. According to the Indonesian Meteorological Bureau (BMKG), Indonesia is expected to experience drought and hot weather affecting two-thirds of the country. Vietnam also experienced drought and hot weather, which also led to reduced production.

Earlier, the follow-up chain reaction caused by the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2019 included rising living costs, falling disposable income, long-term inventory reduction and global economic problems. This resulted in a 2 per cent decline in world coffee consumption to 173.1 million bags in 2022/23.

The International Coffee Organization also predicts that the global economy will grow at a rate of 3%, and the coffee industry will respond to the sharp decline in stocks. Global coffee consumption is expected to grow by 2.2 per cent to 177 million bags. Non-producing countries have a positive impact on coffee consumption growth, and coffee consumption in these countries is expected to increase by 2.1%. As a result, the world coffee market expects a surplus of 1 million bags for the coffee year 2023/24.

Going forward, coffee production in 2023/24 is expected to grow by 5.8% to 178 million bags, with Arabica coffee production increasing to 102.2 million bags and Robusta coffee production to 75.8 million bags.

Note: 60 kg per bag