Coffee prices remain high, coffee prices in Vietnam break the record again

Recently, according to the nasdaq website, the price of coffee has dropped slightly, but remains high. The decline was due to an estimated increase in the export of Brazilian 2023 Coffee 24 from 41.5 million bags to 44.9 million bags by Brazilian exporter group Comexim. But Brazil's current climate has pushed up the price of coffee. According to the Somar Meteorologia weather report, the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais has received 25 millimeters of rainfall in the past week, only 53 per cent of the historical average, and the region accounts for about 30 per cent of Brazilian Arabica coffee.

In addition, Vietnam's coffee exports have the opportunity to increase and lower prices, according to the Vietnamese president's office report, Vietnam's coffee exports in January increased by 47.6% year-on-year, reaching 210000 tons. But the price of coffee in Vietnam is still rising, breaking the record again. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, coffee prices in the central highlands, the main source of coffee in Vietnam, broke the record of 77 million to 79 million dong / ton, compared with the previous price of 76 million to 77 million dong / ton, up about 80% from the previous year.

The reason why the domestic price of Vietnamese coffee continues to rise is that local farmers do not want to sell their coffee beans easily. These coffee farmers are waiting to wait until the price goes up higher before selling it. This also makes it difficult for many traders to obtain sufficient volume to fulfill the previously signed pre-sale contracts. Some agents even went bankrupt because they had nearly $1 million in undelivered goods. Other traders have no choice but to increase the price to purchase coffee beans from farmers to fulfill the sales contract.

Moreover, as a result of Houthi attacks on cargo ships, shipping companies have no choice but to suspend operations or change routes, which also leads to higher prices. At present, container freight along the severely affected Eurasian route has risen by 150 per cent, and major producers such as Vietnam and Indonesia, the Asian countries, face more than three weeks of delays in coffee delivery as ships are forced to divert to the Cape of good Hope. As a result, many buyers avoid buying Robusta from Vietnam and switch to Brazil's Robusta.

Moreover, inventory shortages are caused by tight supplies in Robusta growers such as Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as global shipping problems. In terms of exchange-certified inventory, 66000 bags of Robusta-certified inventory were reduced in January. But the good news is that Brazil exported 4.7 million bags of robusta in 2023, an increase of 212 percent over 2022, according to the Brazilian Coffee exporters Association (Cecafe). And conab expects Brazil's Robusta coffee production to reach 17.1 million bags in 2024, which is expected to solve problems such as supply shortages.