Prices skyrocketed! Rising in three days to the highest peak in half a year

Recently, the futures price of Arabica coffee beans has also risen after cocoa and food inflation, climbing to its highest level since October 2022. The price of Arabica coffee beans for delivery in May surged 12.5%, the biggest weekly increase since July 2021, closing at $2.12 a pound.

In addition, according to a report released by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the monthly average price index of coffee composite price (I-CIP) was 186.36 cents / lb, up 2.4% from February to the highest level in nearly 18 months. In addition, Robusta reached the highest level since October 1994, when the average price was 169.43 cents / lb. The current price rise is due to the heat wave and drought in Vietnam, which affected the production of Robusta coffee beans and the supply crisis, which indirectly pushed up the price of Arabica coffee.

At present, according to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, Vietnam's coffee producing areas are at the peak of drought and high temperatures. The local temperature in Vietnam has increased by 1-3 ℃ this year. In addition, Vietnamese coffee is facing problems such as water shortage and reduced land resources for planting. It is predicted that coffee production may be 20% lower than the previous year's 1.84 million tons, while exports will be 20% lower than the 1.67 million tons in the same period last year.

Due to market concerns about continuing supply shortages in Vietnam, the price of robusta coffee hit an all-time high, with May delivery prices peaking at $3849 per tonne, while the pre-sale contract price in July also reached $3769 per tonne, very close to Arabica prices. The local purchase price in Vietnam is also maintained at around 101 million to 104 million dong / ton. Production fell, so did exports. According to statistics, exports of all forms of coffee in Asia and Oceania fell by 17% to 3.97 million bags.

Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee, and roasters from all over the world are purchasing it, especially in Europe, where it exports about 652000 tons of coffee a year, ranking second in the European Union.

According to data from the European Union Coffee Federation (ECF), EU countries can only rely on Vietnam to import robusta coffee from January to April, as larger Robusta producing countries such as Brazil start harvesting in April, and coffee beans such as the new growing season will not be available until May or June. In addition, due to the high probability of La Nina in the second half of the year, it usually brings frost to Brazil, thus reducing production. However, at present, the demand for coffee is increasing, which provides the export basis and the space for the price to rise continuously.

In addition, the analysis believes that geopolitical issues also affect the price of coffee, and coffee is usually transported mostly by shipping. Recently, the emergency situation in the Red Sea region has led to a sharp rise in the price of Brent crude oil. Brent crude oil has its futures trading on the London Intercontinental Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange, which is one of the benchmark oil prices in the market. More than 65% of the world's physical crude oil trading is linked to the Brent system pricing, oil prices have risen, shipping costs have also increased greatly, so the price of coffee has also risen simultaneously.