Break through $4000! Coffee futures prices rise crazily again

In April, coffee futures prices soared wildly, and Robusta coffee futures hit a record high of US$4399/ton.

The reason why prices are high is due to the reduction in production caused by dry weather in Vietnam. According to a report by the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, coffee production and exports in 2024/25 will both decrease by 20%.

At the beginning of May, Brazil and Vietnam, two major coffee countries, released export reports for April. In the export reports, Brazil and Vietnam both increased coffee production and export volume. In addition, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) also reported a rebound in coffee stocks, which temporarily eased futures prices. At that time, Robusta coffee futures prices fell to US$3440/ton from the earlier US$4399/ton, while Arabica also fell from 228.1 cents/pound to 196.65 cents/pound.

At present, coffee futures prices are rising again, Robusta futures prices have once again exceeded the US$4000 mark, reaching US$4129/ton, while Arabica futures prices have also risen, reaching 233 cents/pound.

The reason why coffee futures rose again is that Brazil and Vietnam will continue to face adverse weather in the two main production seasons.

At present, rainfall has begun in Vietnam. Although it can alleviate the drought situation, the rainfall is not enough to solve the drought problem. According to local farmers, some coffee tree plants have withered and their leaves have yellowed and fell, and they said that the current damage is harmful to coffee plants. Causes irreparable damage, resulting in reduced production.

In addition, international trader Volcafe also believes that Vietnam's Robusta production in 2024/25 will be 24 million bags, the lowest level in nearly 13 years, and that the global Robusta coffee supply will eventually be short of 4.5 million bags.

On the Brazilian side, according to the local meteorological department, cold weather will sweep across Brazil, with frost and the first snow of the year.

According to data, when the polar air mass reaches Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, the city temperature in the state will remain between 3.5°C and 10°C. Frost is likely to occur in parts of the southeast and central and western regions, and southern Brazil is expected to receive its first snowfall of the year in cold weather.

Although the polar air mass will begin to weaken in the next few days, for higher elevations in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, minimum temperatures can reach minus 1°C to minus 2°C and frost may occur.

In addition, according to forecasts from the Meteorological Administration, frost may even occur in some areas of Parana in the next few days as the cyclone drives cold air. Cold air will invade parts of the central and western regions, with cooler temperatures in many cities and reaching western São Paulo state.

In addition, the upcoming La Niña phenomenon will also aggravate the frost situation. In these states, which are Brazil's main coffee-growing areas, many coffee trees are planted, frost will have an adverse impact on Brazil's new growing season.