Atlantic hurricane season is here! Coffee and other industries in many coffee-producing countries in Central America will be seriously affected

Recently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released a report saying that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will become "extraordinary" and the upcoming 2024 hurricane season may face three times the usual risk.

According to reports, at the peak of the hurricane season, which begins June 1, warmer sea problems and reduced wind shear, as well as the transition from El Niño to La Niña, will lead to more and stronger storms this year.

It is understood that the Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and lasts until November 30. Over the past three decades, a hurricane season has produced an average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. However, NOAA predicts a surge in hurricane activity this year.

According to estimates, there is an 85% chance of this year's hurricane season being stronger than normal, a 10% chance of being close to normal, and a 5% chance of being below normal.

It is expected that 17 to 25 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher) will occur, of which 8 to 13 may become hurricanes (with winds of 74 mph), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher).

As a result, the report points out that many countries in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea and across the Atlantic will be affected by hurricane activity. It also called on many countries to take measures to prevent environmental disasters and protect the safety of production, assets and workers.

However, there are many coffee-producing countries and regions in these regions, such as Mexico and the United States on the coast, and island countries and regions in the Caribbean such as Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, Dominica and Puerto Rico.

In addition, as this hurricane may be stronger, countries such as Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Costa Rica in Central America may not be immune.

Generally, the period from May to June is the coffee blooming period in the Central American coffee producing areas, and the period from October to January is the picking period. If a hurricane is encountered during this period, the rainfall and strong winds brought by the hurricane will be detrimental to final production and will aggravate coffee price fluctuations.

As early as 2020, Central America suffered two severe hurricanes, which triggered catastrophic local flash floods and mudslides, causing the destruction of some coffee farms. Finally, many Central American countries reported varying degrees of coffee production reduction.

In addition to affecting the output of coffee producing areas, coffee exports to Central American countries will be affected. Since coffee beans usually rely on shipping for export, and major hurricanes will affect shipping routes, ports will be shut down, containers will be overstocked, and shipping interruptions will continue for several weeks. The transportation cost and time of shipping will surge.