Vietnam's coffee bean export revenue in the first half of the year reached US$3.04 billion! But the harvest is not good

Recently, the General Administration of Customs of Vietnam released export data, as of the first half of June, Vietnam had exported 862400 tons of coffee this year, with export income of 3.04 billion US dollars.

Even in terms of overall data, exports fell by 8 per cent year-on-year, and the theft of goods such as coffee beans at the port reported earlier resulted in a loss of nearly 2.7 billion dong, but export revenue rose 38 per cent year-on-year and reached an all-time high.

On the price side, the average price of Vietnamese coffee exports in May was US $4275 per tonne, up 14 per cent from April and 66 per cent from the same period last year. In the first five months of this year, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee reached 3475 US dollars per tonne, up 41 per cent from the first five months of last year.

And the price of coffee in Vietnam is also high. At present, the estimated price of raw coffee beans in the Central Highlands is between 122 million and 125 million dong / ton. Currently, Robusta futures prices have remained above $4000 a tonne since June and have recently soared to a high of $4253.

The main reason for the high price is the severe drought in Vietnam. It is reported that affected by El Ni ñ o this year, the period from March to May was the worst drought in nearly a decade, leading to the drying and cracking of the riverbed. Coffee plants withered and leaves yellowed and withered and other problems.

In recent weeks, Vietnam has begun to rain, although the harvest has improved, but the progress of the coffee harvest is still not optimistic, because most of the time it is just showers and less rainfall.

Local farmers in Vietnam said that recently, the temperature in Vietnam is also higher than usual, generally above 30 degrees. Coffee plants continue to be subjected to high temperature stress after rainfall, which will lead to root rot and necrosis, yellowing and scorching of leaves, and followed by stagnant plant growth, few new buds and leaves, increased infection rates of disease and insect pests, and poor fruit quality.

In addition, some traders believe that the current concerns about Vietnam's coffee harvest are not over, and that if there is not enough rain after the drought, or if there is too much rain between the October harvest season, it is likely to further depress production.

In addition to the weather, as global demand for robusta coffee continues to grow, coffee prices remain high due to supply shortages, while farmers and middlemen in Vietnam and Brazil are hoarding beans.

According to Simexco, one of Vietnam's largest coffee exporters, as coffee prices have risen before, curry farmers have the financial resources to hoard and hold coffee beans, so they are in no hurry to sell and wait for prices to rise.

However, there is good news on the weather. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Nina is likely to form between July and September 2024 and continue throughout the winter of the Northern Hemisphere.

It is said that each La Nina phenomenon is different and there are many uncertainties, while the La Nina weather in previous years turned into El Nino in 2023 and into La Nina phenomenon in the second half of this year, which will make this phenomenon very weak. the impact on the world weather is not as great as in the traditional climate world.

As a result, no major coffee-producing countries are expected to suffer serious weather-related damage and production is expected to return to normal levels.