Brazil lost 14.7 billion yuan in three months! Coffee production falls 6.8% next year

According to Brazilian media reports, the Brazilian National Federation of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (CNA) recently released estimates that frequent fires caused Brazilian agribusiness to lose at least 14.7 billion reais between June and August.

It is said that, according to the data, the worst affected area during this period was S ã o Paulo, with agricultural losses of about 2.8 billion reais, followed by Mato Grosso (Mato Grosso) of 2.3 billion reais, Para (Para) of 2 billion reais and Mato Grosso of South (Mato Grosso do Sul) of around 1.4 billion reals.

In addition, according to data released by the Brazilian Natural disaster Monitoring and early warning Center, more than 180000 fires were recorded in Brazil as of mid-September, more than double the number of fires in the same period in 2023 and accounting for 50.6 per cent of the total number of fires in South America.

At present, about 5 million square kilometers of Brazil has been affected, and 60% of the land area has been affected, of which the total area of private agricultural property affected by the fire is as high as 2.8 million hectares, including some pastures, captive villages, sugar cane and coffee farms. In addition, fires are still occurring, and fires have been reported in 13 towns in Sao Paulo state. according to the Civil Defense Department, many plantations, pastures and some permanent reserves have been destroyed, but the specific area affected has not yet been fully counted.

In addition, Brazil faces a historic drought, which has intensified the fire disaster, which is caused by natural factors such as El Ni ñ o, as well as human activities such as deforestation and the use of fire in the wild. Drought also means no rain. According to data, more than 1,000 cities in Brazil experienced severe drought in 2024 as of September 22, with no significant rainfall for three months or more in a row. These cities account for half of the total number of cities in Brazil.

According to satellite data shared by the Brazilian Natural disaster Monitoring and early warning Center, 1188 cities in Brazil have had no significant rainfall for 90 consecutive days, while more than 600 cities have had no obvious rainfall for more than 130th consecutive days, and some cities have recorded no rainfall for more than 173rd days. At present, the most serious cities are mainly concentrated in Goas, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso. This has also led to a sharp decline in many rivers in Brazil, with the water level of some tributaries of the Amazon falling to its lowest point of the year, with the water level falling by about 18 cm a day, the riverbed is widely exposed, navigation of some inland rivers is blocked, and the surrounding lakes are seriously dry. The surface of the lake has shrunk sharply. As temperatures continue to rise and rainfall is scarce, these conditions will become more and more serious, exacerbating water shortages and having a serious impact on local ecosystems.

At the same time, Brazil is still in a state of high temperature, and according to the forecast of the meteorological agency Climatempo, the dry and hot weather in southeastern and central-western Brazil will further intensify, and several cities may face warnings of high temperature and low humidity. Temperatures in some areas will be 3 °C to 5 °C above average, and the highest temperature may reach 39 °C.

Due to drought and low humidity, the Civil Defense Department of Sao Paulo State recently issued a statewide high-risk fire alarm through the CGE (Emergency Management Center). Many experts believe that the situation will continue until the end of the year, and it is difficult to alleviate the situation in the short term.

For Brazil's important coffee industry, the current situation is very serious, in the previous fire, many coffee farms were affected by the fire, coffee trees were burned, the impact is very serious. At present, it is in the flowering season of coffee in the new production season, but due to drought and water shortage, some coffee trees will appear dry and yellow leaves, which will seriously affect the flowering and fruiting of coffee, as well as coffee production in the new season in 2025. As a result, Conab, Brazil's official agency, has cut its coffee production for 2024 to 25, which is expected to be reduced by 4 million bags (60 kg / bag), a drop of 6.8%. However, if the situation does not improve by the end of the year, production will continue to decline, while coffee prices will remain high.

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