Coffee futures volatility index hit a 14-year high
Abstract: the 60-day historical volatility index of Arabica coffee futures hit 55.31 on Tuesday and reached 55.93 yesterday, its highest level since October 2000. the reason is that the drought in Brazil, which pushed its prices to a two-year high this month, has been eased by rain.
The 60-day historical volatility index of Arabica coffee futures hit 55.31 on Tuesday and reached 55.93 yesterday, its highest level since October 2000. the reason is that the drought in Brazil, which pushed its prices to a two-year high this month, has been eased by rain.
Brazil accounts for 1/3 of the world's total coffee production. Analysts' forecasts for Brazilian coffee production this year range from 46 million bales to 56.5 million bales, a gap between the upper and lower limits of almost as much as Colombia's projected production. Colombia is the world's second-largest supplier of Arabica coffee beans, which are popular with SBUX.
By midday, Arabica coffee futures for May delivery on the ICE American Futures Exchange were down 1.2 per cent at $1.743 a pound.
Arabica coffee futures are up 57% so far this year, the highest among the 24 raw materials tracked by the s & p GSCI spot index. Arabica coffee futures peaked on march 12th, when they hit $2.0975 a pound, up 89 per cent since the start of the year.
Analysts at Citigroup (C) said in a report today that the average price of Arabica coffee futures is expected to be between $1.50 and $2.25 in the coming quarters.
China Coffee Trading Network: www.gafei.com
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