Yunnan coffee industry is on a roller coaster.

In recent years, the coffee industry in Yunnan has developed rapidly, from more than 300,000 mu in 2008 to more than 1.4 million mu at present, the output has increased from 30,000 tons to more than 80,000 tons, and the planting area and output account for more than 99% of our country. In late March, the coffee harvest in Yunnan was coming to an end, but the farmers were mixed. Coffee prices in February posted their biggest monthly increase in 20 years: from 114cents per pound on January 28th to 180cents per pound on February 28th, but Yunnan coffee production fell from an estimated 100000 tons to less than 60, 000 tons. While the purchase price of coffee has risen sharply, the production has been greatly reduced.

Keep it around 200 cents until May.

Since 2012, the coffee price in Yunnan has been hovering above and below the coffee production cost line due to the decline of international coffee futures prices. the operation of coffee growers is poor, and it is difficult to protect the interests of farmers. At the end of January this year, with the recovery of international coffee futures prices, the price of Yunnan coffee rose rapidly, and the purchase price also rose from about 13 yuan to about 25 yuan. In February, in particular, coffee prices recorded the biggest monthly increase in international coffee in 20 years.

A relevant person in charge of the Yunnan Coffee Industry Association believes that there are three aspects leading to the rapid rise in coffee prices: first, the drought in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, affected coffee production last year; second, some coffee producing countries in Central and South America suffered from coffee rust and reduced coffee production; third, coffee futures were in the doldrums for a long time, and coffee futures speculators deliberately pushed up coffee prices and activated the coffee futures market. From the perspective of production and consumption, when coffee production is expected to decline, coffee supply may fall short of demand, and it is inevitable for coffee prices to rise.

Expert analysis: as for whether coffee prices are up or down, the relevant person in charge of the Yunnan Coffee Industry Association believes that only from the perspective of production and consumption, coffee prices are expected to hover around 200 cents per pound from March to May, and after May, coffee from Brazil, Central and South America and other countries and regions have entered the harvest period, coffee futures prices will have a new trend.

Production reduction caused by natural disasters and other factors

Last year, Yunnan produced more than 80,000 tons of coffee, but the price of coffee was relatively low. This year, the planting area of coffee has increased to more than 1.4 million mu, and the production area has increased to more than 700,000 mu. According to the initial estimate of Yunnan Coffee Industry Association, the coffee output in this harvest season should be about 100000 tons. But as of March 20, coffee production was less than 60,000 tons. Take Baoshan Coffee as an example, the output of coffee in this harvest season is less than 50% of that of last year, only about 9000 tons. Pu'er coffee production has also fallen by at least 30% from last year. The total output of Yunnan coffee in this harvest season can hardly exceed 60,000 tons, and Yunnan coffee production has been reduced by more than 40%.

Yang Zhiqi, executive vice president of the Yunnan Coffee Industry Association and chairman of Lingfeng Coffee, analyzed that there were three reasons for the reduction: first, coffee experienced varying degrees of drought in the early harvest season; second, coffee prices fell below the production cost price in the early stage of coffee ripening, and some farmers gave up harvesting, resulting in coffee fruit necrosis on the trees; third, continuous cold damage last year caused a large area of coffee disaster and reduced production.

Expert advice: Li Gongqin, secretary-general of the provincial coffee industry association, believes that the Yunnan coffee industry should consider how to ensure the stability of production. When prices fall, enterprises and governments should establish some compensation mechanisms and subsidy policies, strengthen the fine cultivation of coffee, and interplant with cash crops such as nuts to increase yields and reduce risks.

China Coffee Trading Network: www.gafei.com