ICE Arabica Coffee Futures Rise Over 1% on July 3

On July 3, global coffee traders were watching the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) for signs of where arabica prices might go next — and they got a clear signal. Prices surged more than 1%, marking the second big rise in just three days. Why? Market watchers believe Brazil’s ongoing drought may have taken a larger toll on the coffee crop than official numbers or early harvest reports suggest.

In short: ICE September arabica coffee futures jumped 2.35 cents, or 1.4%, closing at $1.7330 per pound. That’s the highest intraday price since June, topping out at $1.7430.

What Drove the July 3 Price Jump?

The lift in arabica futures came amid growing speculation that Brazil’s 2024 coffee output could be worse than current data indicates. Though early harvest reports and government stats haven’t yet shown dramatic losses, traders are betting that prolonged dry weather has already damaged the crop more than visible so far.

This wasn't an isolated move. Broader commodity markets were active too. Raw sugar futures also moved higher ahead of key Brazilian crushing data due later in July from industry group Unica. In contrast, cocoa took a small hit despite having recently hit a three-year high.

Where Did Arabica Futures Close on July 3?

Here’s how the key contracts finished trading on Wednesday, July 3:

• September arabica coffee: +2.35 cents (1.4%) to $1.7330 per pound, peaking at $1.7430
• October arabica coffee (ICE): No specific data given
• July sugar (LIFFE): Not specified
• August white sugar (LIFFE): +1.40 USD (0.3%) to $467.50 per tonne
• September cocoa (ICE): -2 USD to $3,117 per tonne
• September cocoa (LIFFE): -4 GBP (0.2%) to £1,931 per tonne

Traders also flagged technical levels to watch. For September arabica futures, the next resistance is seen around $1.8490 — the one-month high hit on June 27. Support is expected near $1.70 per pound.

What About Sugar and Cocoa?

Raw sugar futures for October (ICE-10) added 0.07 cent (0.4%) to close at 17.87 cents per pound. Meanwhile, August white sugar (LIFFE) gained 1.40 USD (0.3%) to $467.50 per tonne.

On the cocoa side, the picture was less bullish. September cocoa (ICE) dipped 2 USD to $3,117 per tonne, while September cocoa (LIFFE) dropped 4 GBP (0.2%) to £1,931 per tonne. This came after cocoa had earlier in the week touched a three-year high, buoyed by strong demand and concerns over West African supply — particularly from top producer Côte d’Ivoire, which saw heavy deliveries that weighed on prices Wednesday.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did arabica coffee futures rise on July 3?

Arabica coffee futures gained over 1% because traders suspect Brazil’s drought has hurt coffee production more severely than official figures and early harvest data show. Concerns about lower output drove buying interest, lifting the September contract by 2.35 cents to $1.7330 per pound.

How much did September arabica coffee futures rise?

The September arabica coffee futures contract rose 2.35 cents (1.4%) to close at $1.7330 per pound on July 3, hitting an intraday high of $1.7430.

What are the key technical price levels for September arabica futures?

Traders see the next resistance level for September arabica futures at around $1.8490 (a one-month high from June 27) and support around $1.70 per pound.

What happened to sugar and cocoa futures on July 3?

October raw sugar futures rose 0.07 cent (0.4%) to 17.87 cents per pound, and August white sugar gained 1.40 USD (0.3%) to $467.50 per tonne. Meanwhile, September cocoa futures fell — ICE futures dropped 2 USD to $3,117 per tonne and LIFFE futures slipped 4 GBP (0.2%) to £1,931 per tonne.

Is Brazil’s coffee crop really being affected by drought?

While early harvest and official data have not yet confirmed major losses, market participants believe Brazil’s ongoing drought may have impacted the coffee crop more than current numbers indicate, prompting the price increase.

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