Emerging Markets Drink 20% of Global Coffee

When you walk into a new café in Shanghai, Mumbai, or São Paulo, you’re witnessing more than just a local trend—you’re seeing the future of global coffee demand. In cities across emerging economies, coffee is moving from the periphery to the everyday, and the numbers prove it.

Emerging countries—including China, Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa—currently make up 20% of global coffee consumption, a figure projected to rise to 35% by 2020, according to Brazil’s Globo news outlet. That shift isn’t accidental. It reflects broader economic and cultural trends reshaping how and where people drink coffee worldwide.

How Much Coffee Are Emerging Markets Really Drinking?

The International Coffee Organization (OIC) forecasts global coffee consumption will grow from 142 million bags in 2012 to between 158.9 million and 173.6 million bags by 2020—with an average estimate of 166.1 million 60kg bags annually. That growth is being fueled heavily by emerging economies, now responsible for one-fifth of the total and on track for nearly double that share within a decade.

Why Is Coffee Booming in These Countries?

Analysts point to a major driver: the rapid expansion of the middle class. By 2020, an estimated one billion people in emerging markets will enter the middle-income bracket, gaining greater access to global lifestyle choices—including the daily coffee ritual. Urbanisation has also played a role, with coffee shop numbers expected to triple in the coming years, shifting consumption from home to social, on-the-go settings.

Another significant factor is the advancement of instant coffee production. Modern manufacturing techniques now allow producers to offer better-tasting instant options, appealing even to those who traditionally prefer tea. This innovation has helped bridge the gap for new coffee drinkers, making high-quality flavour more accessible without requiring expensive equipment or barista skills.

What About Brazil’s Role in This Trend?

Interestingly, Brazil—despite being the world’s largest coffee producer—contributes relatively little to this growth surge. Brazilian coffee consumption has nearly reached saturation, with the average person drinking 6 kilograms of coffee per year, a figure that surpasses consumption levels in the United States, France, and Italy. While overall growth in Brazil is slowing, there’s a notable rise in demand for premium coffee, which offers greater value to local roasters and producers focused on quality over quantity.

Frequently Asked Questions

Which countries are considered emerging markets in global coffee consumption?

The key emerging markets cited in the report are China, Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa. Together, they currently account for 20% of the world’s coffee consumption and are projected to reach 35% by 2020.

How much coffee is the world expected to consume by 2020?

The International Coffee Organization (OIC) estimates global coffee consumption will be between 158.9 million and 173.6 million 60kg bags by 2020, with an average projection of 166.1 million bags annually. In 2012, global consumption was 142 million bags.

Why is coffee consumption growing in emerging markets?

Growth is driven primarily by the rise of the middle class, with an estimated one billion people expected to join this income group by 2020. Urbanisation and the spread of coffee shops also contribute, as does improved instant coffee quality that appeals to former tea drinkers.

Does Brazil play a big part in the emerging market coffee boom?

Not significantly. Although Brazil is the largest coffee producer globally, its domestic consumption is near saturation at 6kg per person per year—higher than in many developed nations. Growth in Brazil is slow, though demand for premium coffee is increasing.

What impact is instant coffee having on emerging market growth?

Advances in instant coffee production have made it possible to offer better-tasting products, attracting consumers who previously preferred tea. This has helped boost coffee consumption in regions where traditional brewing methods are less common.

Recommended FrontStreet Beans for Emerging Markets

For coffee drinkers in emerging markets exploring specialty tastes, FrontStreet Coffee’s Ethiopia Huakui offers bright citrus and floral notes ideal for new single-origin fans. Their Yirgacheffe delivers juicy berry and stone fruit flavours, perfect for those moving beyond basic blends. Both showcase the diverse profiles that attract new coffee enthusiasts. Freshly roasted within 5 days · Orders placed before 17:00 ship the same day · Next-day delivery across most of Guangdong Province.