NY Coffee Futures Near Multi-Year Lows Amid Dollar Strength

Coffee traders and roasters keeping an eye on global commodity markets saw sharp movements this week as key futures contracts reacted to currency shifts, contract expiries, and supply expectations. If you’ve been wondering why your favorite single-origin espresso blend seems stuck in price limbo—or why some roasters are hedging more aggressively—it starts here, with the numbers from ICE and LIFFE.

On June 26, ICE arabica coffee futures for September dropped 2.10 cents (1.7%) to $1.1845 per pound, just above the June 20 low of $1.1710—the lowest for a front-month contract since July 2009—while the dollar index climbed, adding pressure to dollar-denominated coffee prices.

Why Sugar Futures Dropped Ahead of Contract Expiry

ICE July raw sugar futures fell 0.06 cent (0.4%) to 17.01 cents per pound, with traders focusing on the contract’s June 28 expiry. Concerns over potential large deliveries—including surplus Mexican sugar—weighed on the market. Although global supply remains excessive, prices stayed above the June 13 three-year low of 16.17 cents per pound. The July contract expiry and expected deliveries are key reasons behind the downward push.

London White Sugar Premium Hits Near-One-Year High

In London, the August white sugar contract jumped 0.30 USD (0.1%) to 517.80 USD per ton, narrowing its premium over the October contract. That premium had earlier widened to 31.70 USD—the highest in nearly a year—sparking speculation about possible Mexican sugar deliveries ahead of the July contract’s Friday expiry. The August contract remains closely watched for signals about near-term supply and arbitrage plays.

Arabica and Robusta Coffee Futures Fall

ICE September arabica coffee futures settled at $1.1845 per pound after falling 2.10 cents (1.7%), just off the June 20 low of $1.1710, pressured by Brazil’s abundant mid-crop harvest. Meanwhile, LIFFE September robusta coffee futures dropped 24 USD (1.4%) to 1,725 USD per ton. Both contracts reflect ongoing bearish sentiment due to strong production forecasts and currency-driven headwinds.

Cocoa Futures Show Mixed Trends

In London, the September cocoa contract rose 16 GBP (1.1%) to 1,454 GBP per ton, buoyed by a weaker British pound. ICE September cocoa futures also gained, rising 2 USD to 2,165 USD per ton after stabilizing from a two-month low hit on Monday. The London market saw more buying interest, contrasting with the relative stagnation in ICE cocoa futures following Monday’s dip.

What Determined the Coffee Price Drop?

The primary driver for the near multi-year low in arabica futures was the stronger U.S. dollar index, which makes dollar-priced commodities like coffee more expensive for holders of other currencies. This, combined with the looming abundance from Brazil’s current crop cycle, kept downward pressure on prices. The market remains sensitive to both macroeconomic indicators and seasonal supply data.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did ICE arabica coffee futures drop to near $1.1710 per pound?

Arabica futures for September fell to near $1.1710 per pound—the lowest since July 2009—due to a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of abundant supply from Brazil’s mid-crop harvest, which increases global availability and pressures prices.

What caused the July raw sugar futures to decline?

July raw sugar futures dropped 0.06 cent to 17.01 cents per pound as traders focused on the June 28 contract expiry, with concerns over possible large deliveries including surplus Mexican sugar contributing to the decline.

Why did the London August white sugar premium rise so much?

The August white sugar contract premium over October widened to 31.70 USD, the highest in almost a year, sparking rumors of potential Mexican sugar deliveries ahead of the July contract expiry on Friday, which later narrowed slightly but remained elevated.

How did the stronger dollar impact coffee futures?

A stronger U.S. dollar index made coffee futures, which are priced in dollars, more expensive for international buyers, reducing demand and contributing to the drop in ICE arabica prices to near multi-year lows.

What were the movements in the cocoa futures markets?

Liffe September cocoa futures rose 16 GBP (1.1%) to 1,454 GBP per ton due to a weaker pound, while ICE September cocoa futures gained 2 USD to 2,165 USD per ton, recovering slightly after hitting a two-month low on Monday.

What are the key dates to watch for sugar futures expiry?

The key expiry dates to monitor are June 28 for ICE July raw sugar futures and Friday, June 28, for the London August white sugar contract, both of which influenced trading behavior and price spreads this week.

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